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Projected 19.8% Drop in Murders by 2025

12/25/2025

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Asher Projects Murder Decline

Jeff Asher, crime analyst, projects a 19.8% national decline in murders from January to October 2025.
The decline follows trends since 2023 and includes Birmingham (49%), Baltimore (30.9%), Chicago (28.8%).
Milwaukee and Los Angeles saw increases, while New York City posted its lowest shootings.
Asher estimates about 12,000 fewer murders in 2024 and 2025 compared with 2020–2021, with Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) data for 2025 due next year.

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Trump Claims Crime Drop

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration claims a drop in violent crime, with murders down nearly 19% from January through October 2025 per the Real-Time Crime Index.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt attributes decline to tough-on-crime policies.
Crime analyst Jeff Asher cautions the figures require confirmation from FBI data, expected next year.
A White House report notes lower inflation in conservative states than liberal ones, especially energy and transportation costs.

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Asher Projects Murder Decline

Jeff Asher, crime analyst, projects a 19.8% national decline in murders from January to October 2025.
The decline follows trends since 2023 and includes Birmingham (49%), Baltimore (30.9%), Chicago (28.8%).
Milwaukee and Los Angeles saw increases, while New York City posted its lowest shootings.
Asher estimates about 12,000 fewer murders in 2024 and 2025 compared with 2020–2021, with Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) data for 2025 due next year.

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