Russian Public Sentiment on the Ukraine War: Expectations for 2026

A recent survey conducted by the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research (VTsIOM) indicates that 55% of Russians anticipate the conclusion of the ongoing war in Ukraine by 2026. This expectation is linked to a broader sense of optimism about the year ahead, with 70% of the 1,600 respondents viewing 2026 as a more "successful" year for Russia compared to the current one. Mikhail Mamonov, VTsIOM's Deputy Head, attributed this optimism to the potential completion of what the Kremlin refers to as its "special military operation" in Ukraine, aligning with President Vladimir Putin's stated national interests.

The conflict, which began in February 2022, is nearing its fifth year. Despite the ongoing military operations, the poll suggests a shift in public messaging, as optimism is increasingly tied to the war's conclusion. Mamonov noted that the Russian army's continued offensive, along with the U.S. and European Union's financial dynamics regarding Ukraine, are influencing public expectations for a peace agreement.

While the VTsIOM poll reflects a consolidation of support for Putin, independent polling from the Levada Center reveals a more nuanced public sentiment. According to Levada, 66% of respondents now favor moving towards peace talks, a notable increase in recent months. This divergence highlights the complexities of public opinion in Russia, particularly under the constraints of state-controlled media.

The Kremlin has indicated that Putin has been briefed on discussions with U.S. envoys regarding potential peace negotiations. Putin's conditions for peace include Ukraine's cession of the remaining Donbas territory and a formal renunciation of NATO membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has expressed optimism about ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and European nations, suggesting they are "very close to a real result."

War-Weariness in Polls: Russia’s Public Looks for an Exit

Critics argue that the Kremlin's messaging may be an attempt to gauge public readiness for a peace settlement while managing expectations after years of promoting a narrative of prolonged conflict. The emphasis on veteran reintegration and reconstruction in occupied territories signals early post-conflict planning, even as military operations persist.

War-Weariness in Polls: Russia’s Public Looks for an Exit

The expectation of a 2026 resolution may influence Russian strategic planning and accelerate diplomatic efforts in the coming years. If public sentiment shifts towards a desire for peace, it could create domestic pressure on Putin to negotiate rather than prolong the conflict. However, the stark contrast between state and independent polling on peace sentiment complicates the assessment of genuine public opinion in Russia.

War-Weariness in Polls: Russia’s Public Looks for an Exit

• “The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president,” — Mikhail Mamonov, Deputy Head of VTsIOM

• “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on December 22 that negotiations conducted with the United States and European nations aimed at ending the war with Russia were "very close to a real result".” — Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine

This evolving landscape of public sentiment and diplomatic negotiations underscores the complexities surrounding the future of the Ukraine conflict and the potential for a shift in Russia's approach to peace.

War-Weariness in Polls: Russia’s Public Looks for an Exit