Story perspectives

Russia's Industrial Output Declines: Stagnation Expected Ahead

12/26/2025

Summary

Story summary

The Moscow Times reports Rosstat (Russian Federal State Statistics Service) data show Russia's industrial output fell 0.7% year-on-year in November, the first contraction since February 2023.
Civilian industries faced losses, with food production down 0.8% and automotive manufacturing down 34.1%.
The government downgraded growth from 2.3% to about 1%, while the World Bank forecasts stagnation through at least 2028 and independent economists expect a decade of near-zero growth.

History

Historical Context

In 1998, Russia's economy collapsed due to fiscal mismanagement and a reliance on short-term borrowing, leading to a 40% devaluation of the ruble and a significant drop in industrial output. The International Monetary Fund intervened with a $22.6 billion bailout. Today, a 34.1% decline in automotive manufacturing reflects ongoing vulnerabilities, suggesting potential stagnation reminiscent of the late 1990s economic crisis.

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Story summary

The Moscow Times reports Rosstat (Russian Federal State Statistics Service) data show Russia's industrial output fell 0.7% year-on-year in November, the first contraction since February 2023.
Civilian industries faced losses, with food production down 0.8% and automotive manufacturing down 34.1%.
The government downgraded growth from 2.3% to about 1%, while the World Bank forecasts stagnation through at least 2028 and independent economists expect a decade of near-zero growth.

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