Ken Paxton Leads in Texas Senate Republican Primary Race

The 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary is shaping up to be a significant event in national politics, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton currently leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt. According to prediction market Polymarket, Paxton commands 62% of the potential vote, while Cornyn trails at 28% and Hunt at 8.8%. The primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026, and is viewed as a critical test of Republican Party unity and direction amid ongoing debates over key issues such as the economy, immigration policy, and the influence of former President Donald Trump.

Newsweek

Recent polling presents a more nuanced picture of the race. A co/efficient poll conducted on December 4 indicates Cornyn with a slight lead at 28%, followed closely by Paxton at 27% and Hunt at 19%. Notably, 26% of voters remain undecided, highlighting the potential for shifts in voter sentiment as the primary date approaches. Another poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University in October showed Paxton at 34% compared to Cornyn's 33%, with Hunt receiving 22% and 11% undecided.

Newsweek

Ken Paxton has positioned his campaign as a challenge to Cornyn, criticizing him for perceived disloyalty to Trump and the America First movement. Paxton stated on X, "For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that’s why I’m running for U.S. Senate." In contrast, Cornyn's team emphasizes his strong voting record, asserting that he holds a 99% alignment with Trump. Representative Wesley Hunt has also expressed optimism about his campaign, stating, "The support we’ve been receiving... is proof that voters are ready now more than ever for a new generation of leadership."

Newsweek

The outcome of the Texas Senate primary could have broader implications for the Republican Party, particularly regarding its alignment with Trump's policies and the future direction of the party. With a significant portion of voters undecided, the race is likely to be influenced by increased campaign spending, advertising efforts, and potential endorsements, especially from Trump. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff election will take place in May.

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• “For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that’s why I’m running for U.S. Senate.” — Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General

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• “The media loves the drama, but the scoreboard tells the truth. Senator @JohnCornyn holds a 99% voting record with President @realDonaldTrump. While others chase retweets, Cornyn chases results.” — Team Cornyn

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• “It’s humbling, it’s moving, and it’s proof that voters are ready now more than ever for a new generation of leadership.” — Wesley Hunt, Representative

Newsweek

As the primary date approaches, candidates will likely ramp up their campaign efforts. The undecided voter segment remains a critical factor, and the potential for a high-profile endorsement could significantly influence the race's outcome.

Newsweek