Colorado's Snowpack Crisis: Analyzing the Current Situation

Colorado is experiencing its slowest snowpack accumulation in decades, with current levels significantly below average for this time of year. As of late December, the snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin above Dillon is at approximately 46% of the typical average, equating to about 2.8 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE), compared to the expected 6 inches. Joel Gratz, founder and CEO of OpenSnow, noted that Colorado's snowpack is near record lows based on data from around 100 automated weather stations across the state. The Upper Arkansas basin is particularly affected, sitting at just 47% of its normal snowpack.

Colorado’s Snowpack Declines: Is Climate Change the Culprit?

Meteorologists predict a brief winter resurgence with light snowfall expected on New Year’s Day. However, the forecast indicates that this will not significantly enhance the snowpack, which remains critically low. Meteorologist Maggie Ideker from the National Weather Service stated that while some snow is anticipated to begin around 11 a.m. on Thursday, the overall conditions will remain dry with above-normal temperatures persisting throughout the week.

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The current low snowpack is not directly attributed to climate change, according to Gratz, who emphasized that historical data shows variability in snowfall across decades. However, Colorado State Climatologist Russ Schumacher pointed out that while low snowfall can occur naturally, the unusually warm temperatures this December—potentially the warmest on record—may indicate a climate change influence. He noted that extreme winter warmth aligns more closely with climate change signals.

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The ramifications of this dry start to the winter season could extend for years if conditions do not improve. Nathan Elder, manager of water supply for Denver Water, highlighted that a significant portion of Denver's water supply relies on snowpack runoff in the spring. While the current reservoir levels are stable at 83% full, slightly below the typical 87% average, the potential for drought conditions looms if snow totals remain low. Historically, Colorado builds about 20% of its total snowpack by the end of December, leaving the possibility for recovery in the coming months. Elder referenced past seasons, such as 1999-2000 and 2012-2013, where slow starts eventually led to normal levels of snowpack.

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Despite the optimism regarding potential recovery, water managers caution that not every year rebounds from a dry start. Some years have transitioned directly into drought conditions, prompting calls for residents to prepare for possible water shortages. Elder advised communities to enhance landscape resilience and plan for potential drought scenarios.

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• “A huge portion of Denver's water supply and the supply in Colorado relies on snowpack runoff in the spring,” — Nathan Elder, Manager of Water Supply for Denver Water

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The situation remains fluid, and the coming months will be critical in determining whether Colorado can recover from its current snowpack deficit.

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