Howard Government Warned of Climate Change Risks in 2005

In 2005, the Howard government received alarming warnings regarding the accelerating impacts of climate change, as revealed by recently declassified cabinet documents. A submission from then Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer and Environment Minister Ian Campbell highlighted that climate change was progressing at an "unprecedented" pace, with global carbon dioxide levels reaching 30% higher than any time in the last 400,000 years. The submission outlined that Australia's reliance on coal would complicate efforts to mitigate climate change while pursuing economic growth, forecasting significant disruptions across various sectors, including water resources, agriculture, and public health.

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The documents indicated that Australia was particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its marginal rainfall and heavy reliance on irrigation, predicting increased frequency of droughts and bushfires. The submission warned that these factors would adversely affect agricultural production, especially in areas already facing challenges like soil salinity and erosion.

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Despite these warnings, the Howard government opted not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, a decision that raised concerns among investors about regulatory uncertainty in the energy sector. Business leaders expressed that the absence of a stable policy framework was hindering investment in energy generation and energy-intensive industries. In 2003, Prime Minister John Howard had also vetoed a proposal for an emissions trading scheme, citing industry concerns.

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By 2006, the cabinet rejected recommendations to enhance the country's renewable energy targets aimed at reducing emissions. However, as pressure mounted from opposition leader Kevin Rudd, Howard shifted his stance in 2007 to support a trading scheme following a report from his departmental secretary, Peter Shergold.

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Philip Ruddock, who served as Howard's Attorney General, acknowledged the government's awareness of the scientific consensus on climate change. He emphasized the need for Australia to contribute to global efforts against climate change while also advocating for a balanced approach that does not impose excessive costs on the economy.

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In a recent column, Downer expressed skepticism about the consensus on climate science, stating that while the planet has warmed since the Industrial Revolution, the costs of addressing climate change should be carefully evaluated. He argued against imposing significant economic burdens for actions that may not yield practical benefits.

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While the cabinet documents indicate a clear understanding of the risks associated with climate change, there are discrepancies in the current interpretations of these warnings. Downer's recent comments suggest a shift in his views on climate science, contrasting with the earlier cabinet submissions that emphasized the urgency of addressing climate impacts.

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• “The magnitude of climate change in Australia, combined with marginal rainfall in many of our key agricultural areas and a heavy reliance on irrigation, is likely to make Australia more vulnerable to climate change than most developed countries, including the United States (US) and many European countries,” — Alexander Downer, Former Foreign Affairs Minister

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• “I’ve always been of the view that if the world is going to address [climate change], we need to be ensuring that Australia plays its part,” — Philip Ruddock, Former Attorney General

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• “But there is no virtue in imposing vast costs on our economy for the sake of gestures that have no practical impact.” — Alexander Downer, Former Foreign Affairs Minister

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