China's Struggle to Reverse Declining Birth Rates

As of January 1, 2026, China marks a decade since the abolition of its one-child policy, a significant shift aimed at addressing the country's declining birth rates. Despite this policy reversal, China's population continues to shrink, with a recorded decline of approximately 850,000 people in 2022, marking the first population decrease in over 60 years. Analysts predict that the demographic challenges will worsen, with projections suggesting that individuals aged 60 and above could constitute half of the population by 2100.

One-child policy: China wants more babies; people aren't sureTen years after it ended its ‘one-child’ policy, China’s push for more babies isn’t winning its citizens over

The Chinese government has implemented various measures to encourage higher birth rates, including cash bonuses for families with young children and tax incentives. However, many young couples, like Welkin Lei and his wife, cite high childcare costs, youth unemployment, and the burden of caring for aging parents as significant deterrents to having more children. Lei expressed concern about the financial implications of raising children in a society where economic stability is uncertain.

Ten years after it ended its ‘one-child’ policy, China’s push for more babies isn’t winning its citizens over

In recent years, the government has introduced initiatives such as annual cash bonuses of 3,600 yuan (approximately $500) for families with children under three, and plans to eliminate out-of-pocket costs for hospital deliveries by 2026. However, critics argue that these incentives are insufficient to offset the high costs of raising children in urban areas. Mi Ya, a mother from Shanghai, remarked that the subsidies feel like "a drop in the bucket" compared to the overall expenses involved.

Ten years after it ended its ‘one-child’ policy, China’s push for more babies isn’t winning its citizens over

The remnants of the one-child policy continue to influence societal attitudes towards family size. Many young adults, shaped by a generation of stringent birth control, view having one child as a viable family structure. The policy's legacy has also resulted in a gender imbalance and a generation of only children, further complicating the issue of elder care in a rapidly aging society.

Ten years after it ended its ‘one-child’ policy, China’s push for more babies isn’t winning its citizens over

Despite the government's efforts, skepticism remains regarding the effectiveness of these measures. Experts like Yao Yang, dean of the Di-shui-hu Advanced Finance Institute, argue that reversing the declining birth rate may be impossible at this stage, stating, "If we changed the ‘one-child’ policy 20 years ago, it would be much better. Now it’s too late." Furthermore, the recent introduction of a value-added tax on contraceptives has sparked public concern, with some viewing it as a coercive tactic reminiscent of past policies.

Ten years after it ended its ‘one-child’ policy, China’s push for more babies isn’t winning its citizens over

While some view the tax on contraceptives as a financial burden, others see it as a symbolic gesture that fails to address the root causes of declining birth rates. Observers are divided on the government's intentions, with some suggesting it is an attempt to raise revenue amid economic challenges, while others warn that excessive state intervention could provoke resistance rather than compliance.

One-child policy: China wants more babies; people aren't sure

As China grapples with its demographic crisis, the central question remains whether current policies can effectively encourage a younger generation to have more children. With economic pressures, social expectations, and a legacy of coercive family planning weighing heavily on personal choices, the path to reversing the demographic decline appears fraught with challenges.

One-child policy: China wants more babies; people aren't sure