Full Breakdown
Offensive Rookie of the Year Race: McMillan vs. Shough
1/3/2026, 8:00:31 AM
Leading Candidates for the Award
The 2025 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year will be announced on February 5, with the leading candidates making their final cases in the last week of the regular season. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Carolina Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan is the -175 favorite, while New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough follows as the +150 second choice. Other contenders include Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson (+1200), Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart (+1400), and Buccaneers receiver Emeka Egbuka (+1600), though they are considered longshots.
Performance Metrics
McMillan has established a strong case for the award, leading all rookies with seven receiving touchdowns, ranking second in receiving yards with 929, and third in receptions with 66. His performance has been pivotal for the Panthers, who are currently 8-8 and can secure a playoff spot with a win or tie against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or a loss by the Saints. In contrast, Shough has also made a compelling argument since taking over as the Saints' starting quarterback in Week 9, completing 69.6% of his passes for 1,997 yards and nine touchdowns against four interceptions. His leadership has contributed to a four-game winning streak for New Orleans, the franchise's longest since 2020.
Matchup Considerations
McMillan's upcoming matchup against the Buccaneers, who have one of the league's weakest pass defenses, could further bolster his chances. The Buccaneers allow an average of 236.4 passing yards per game and will be missing cornerback Jamel Dean due to injury. This favorable matchup may enhance McMillan's performance and visibility to voters.
Voting Dynamics
The voting structure for the Offensive Rookie of the Year could also play a significant role in determining the winner. Voters rank their top five candidates, awarding points based on their rankings. Historical trends indicate that players who complete a full season tend to receive more votes than those with shorter playing times. McMillan's participation in every game this season may give him an edge over Shough, who has played only ten games and started eight.
Conclusion: Betting Value
With McMillan's odds translating to a 63.6% chance of winning, bettors who believe in his likelihood of securing the award may find value in his current odds. As the season concludes, both players will look to solidify their cases, but McMillan's consistent performance and favorable circumstances position him as the frontrunner in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The case for McMillan to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year is strong.” — CBS Sports
- “Past results show that voters favor players who play a full schedule versus those who play a shortened one.” — CBS Sports
