Full Breakdown
U.S. Employment and CPI Reports Delayed Amid Government Shutdown
1/5/2026, 11:14:02 AM
Overview of the Core Event
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release combined employment reports for October and November on December 15, 2025. However, the reports will lack critical data due to the recent government shutdown, marking the first time since 1948 that the unemployment rate for October will not be published. This unprecedented gap raises concerns about the implications for economic analysis and policy-making.
Key Details of the Reports
The government shutdown, which was the longest in U.S. history, hindered the BLS's ability to collect essential data. Specifically, the household survey, which is crucial for calculating the unemployment rate, was not conducted for October. Additionally, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was canceled, leaving uncertainty about the availability of price data for that month. The BLS has indicated that it cannot retroactively collect this data, resulting in significant gaps in the employment metrics.
For November, the BLS will incorporate nonfarm payroll data from October into its report. Economists predict an increase of 50,000 jobs for November, following a rise of 119,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%, consistent with September's figures.
Implications for Economic Analysis
The absence of October's unemployment rate and other household metrics, such as the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio, complicates the assessment of the labor market's health. The BLS has acknowledged that the November estimates will have "slightly higher" variances due to changes in statistical weights, although this is expected to normalize by December.
Goldman Sachs has warned that the late collection of price data could lead to increased volatility in the CPI series. They noted that collecting prices primarily in the second half of November might bias prices lower, as prices typically decline during the holiday sales season.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics have expressed concern over the implications of missing data for economic policy and decision-making. The inability to report the unemployment rate for October is particularly troubling for analysts and policymakers who rely on this data to gauge economic conditions. The BLS's inability to provide specific guidance on navigating the missing October observations has also drawn scrutiny.
Official Statements & Responses
The BLS stated, "Where possible, BLS will publish October 2025 values for these series with the release of November 2025 data," but cautioned that the number of publishable indexes for October would be limited. They emphasized that the November report will not include one-month percent changes for November where October data is missing.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This will be the first time that the government has failed to publish the unemployment rate since it started tracking the series in 1948.” — Reuters
- “Goldman Sachs warned of increased volatility in the CPI series, noting that "collecting prices only in the second half of the month could bias prices lower because goods prices typically decline sharply starting around the middle of November as the holiday sales season kicks off.” — Goldman Sachs
What's Next
As the BLS prepares to release the combined reports, analysts and policymakers will closely monitor the implications of the missing data on economic forecasts and monetary policy decisions. The upcoming December report is expected to provide clearer insights as the BLS returns to its standard data collection methods.
