Story perspectives

New Bayesian Model Enhances Mortality Forecasting Accuracy

1/6/2026

50 8

Summary

Story summary

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) Professor Johnny Li notes mortality forecasting faces challenges due to inconsistent data collection methods.
His team developed a Bayesian approach using extensive data and uncertainty measures.
The model has been applied to establish continuing care retirement communities across major Chinese cities.
Li's refinements aim to improve accuracy by including lifestyle and living conditions, benefiting insurers and reinsurers.

1 of 1

Story summary

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) Professor Johnny Li notes mortality forecasting faces challenges due to inconsistent data collection methods.
His team developed a Bayesian approach using extensive data and uncertainty measures.
The model has been applied to establish continuing care retirement communities across major Chinese cities.
Li's refinements aim to improve accuracy by including lifestyle and living conditions, benefiting insurers and reinsurers.