Venezuela's Political Vacuum: The Rise of Armed Groups Post-Maduro

Following the removal of President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. military forces, Delcy Rodríguez, the former vice president, was sworn in as interim president on January 5, 2026. This transition has not stabilized the country, as various factions within the Venezuelan elite, including both civilian and military interests, vie for power. The civil-military alliance, rooted in the leftist ideology of Chavismo, is now under significant strain. Key figures include Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez from the civilian side, and Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino López representing military interests. The political vacuum has raised concerns about potential armed conflict involving numerous armed groups with differing loyalties.

The ConversationThe IndependentWhat are the implications of the US intervention in Venezuela for organized crime?

Venezuela is home to various armed groups, including the pro-government colectivos, Colombian guerrillas like the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC dissidents, and major criminal organizations such as Tren de Aragua. These groups have varying motivations, with some aligned with the government and others seeking to exploit the chaos for their gain. The colectivos, while initially loyal to the Maduro regime, could turn to violence if they perceive the new leadership as capitulating to U.S. pressure.

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Experts warn that the current situation is ripe for insurgency, as many armed factions are well-armed and familiar with the terrain. Robert Pape, a political science professor, noted that the conditions in Venezuela are "perfect for insurgency," suggesting that violent resistance to U.S. control over oil resources is likely.

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The dynamics between the civilian leadership and military factions are complex. While Delcy Rodríguez has shown a willingness to adopt market-oriented policies to stabilize the economy, military leaders may resist any perceived ideological betrayal. The military's alignment with the civilian leadership is tenuous, as they prioritize their economic interests tied to state resources. Should a split occur, it could lead to both formal armed conflict and guerrilla warfare, engaging not only the military but also the colectivos and other armed groups.

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Criminal organizations in Venezuela, including gangs and drug cartels, operate independently of ideological loyalties. Their primary focus is on maintaining control over illicit markets, such as drug trafficking and extortion. In the event of a civil-military split, these groups may remain neutral, using the instability to expand their operations. The entrenched nature of these criminal networks complicates any efforts to restore order, as they have become deeply integrated into the political and economic fabric of the country.

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The U.S. government has framed its intervention as a necessary action against organized crime, particularly drug trafficking. However, experts argue that simply removing Maduro will not dismantle the complex networks that support Venezuela's illicit economies. The Trump administration's approach has been criticized for potentially exacerbating violence and instability rather than resolving the underlying issues.

What are the implications of the US intervention in Venezuela for organized crime?

Critics of the U.S. intervention warn that it may lead to greater chaos and violence, as armed groups vie for control in the absence of a stable government. The potential for mass opposition to U.S. involvement is significant, with fears that economic hardships resulting from the intervention will lead to increased support for violent resistance.

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The future of Venezuela remains uncertain. The interplay between armed groups, the military, and the new civilian leadership will be crucial in determining whether the country descends into further violence or finds a path toward stability. Addressing the complex web of armed actors through state-building and multilateral cooperation may be essential for achieving long-term peace in the post-Maduro era.

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