Upgrading Deterrence: The UK’s Military Strategy in Response to Russian Aggression

In light of escalating tensions with Russia, the UK and its NATO allies are urged to enhance their military capabilities to effectively deter further aggression from President Vladimir Putin. A report by Sir Jock Stirrup, a former Royal Air Force commander and chief of defence staff, highlights that the UK’s current nuclear doctrine is outdated. Stirrup emphasizes that deterrence must encompass a range of military capabilities, not solely rely on nuclear weapons. He advocates for the resumption of large-scale military exercises that include nuclear elements to establish a credible deterrent against adversaries like Russia and China.

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As part of the UK’s response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer announced plans to deploy peacekeeping troops alongside France, contingent upon a ceasefire agreement with Russia. While the exact number of troops remains uncertain, estimates suggest a potential deployment of around 7,500 personnel. However, military experts, including Sir Richard Shirreff, former NATO deputy supreme allied commander, argue that a more substantial force of at least 50,000 troops would be necessary to effectively deter Russian aggression, especially given the UK army's current size of fewer than 80,000.

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Critics, including former defence secretary Gavin Williamson, contend that a token military presence would be insufficient. Williamson draws parallels to the Cold War, suggesting that the UK would need a force comparable to the “army of the Rhine,” which consisted of over 40,000 troops stationed in West Germany to deter Soviet threats. The report from Policy Exchange, co-authored by Stirrup and Daniel Skeffington, underscores the inadequacies of the UK’s reliance on submarine-based nuclear deterrents and calls for a comprehensive approach that integrates both nuclear and conventional capabilities.

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The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the potential for a future without US nuclear deterrence, as indicated by concerns surrounding former President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance towards NATO allies, particularly regarding Greenland. Rose Gottemoeller, former NATO deputy secretary-general, warns that the US's unpredictable behavior could undermine the nuclear umbrella over Europe, raising fears of nuclear proliferation. The situation in Ukraine, coupled with the US's military actions in Venezuela, has prompted European leaders to reconsider their defense strategies and reliance on American support.

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Sir Keir Starmer has articulated a commitment to increasing defense spending to 3.5% of the UK’s GDP, urging other NATO allies to follow suit. Meanwhile, Downing Street anticipates that additional countries, including Germany, may join the coalition of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. The UK government has yet to clarify the specifics of troop deployments, emphasizing the need for parliamentary approval before any military action.

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There are discrepancies regarding the number of troops deemed necessary for effective deterrence in Ukraine. While military experts suggest a requirement of at least 50,000 troops, the UK government has indicated a potential deployment of only 7,500. This gap raises questions about the adequacy of the proposed military strategy in addressing the threat posed by Russia.

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• “Deterrence works as a ‘package’: in deterrence theory there is no clear divide between nuclear and conventional weapons. Deterrence, therefore, rests on a spectrum of capabilities, not just nuclear weapons themselves.” — Sir Jock Stirrup, Former Chief of Defence Staff

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• “Everything that the United States is doing to raise doubts about its support for the Nato alliance will raise doubts about its willingness to extend a nuclear deterrent guarantee to Nato Europe.” — Rose Gottemoeller, Former NATO Deputy Secretary-General

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