U.S. Pressure on Cuba Intensifies Amid Venezuelan Oil Crisis

Cuba is experiencing its most severe economic crisis since the 1959 revolution, exacerbated by a significant reduction in oil supplies from Venezuela. The island, which relies heavily on Venezuelan oil, has seen shipments plummet from approximately 90,000 barrels per day to around 35,000 barrels, covering only about 30% of its energy needs. This decline has led to widespread power outages lasting up to 20 hours daily, food shortages, and a deteriorating social safety net. The Cuban government blames the U.S. embargo and sanctions for these hardships, while many citizens express frustration over the situation.

The Straits Times

Following the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Republican leaders are increasingly vocal about their hopes for regime change in Cuba. Florida Senator Rick Scott stated, “I think they are in trouble. The people are fed up,” emphasizing the potential for democratic change in Cuba. Other Republicans, including Rep. María Elvira Salazar and Sen. Lindsey Graham, have echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that the fall of Maduro could lead to the collapse of the Cuban regime.

The HillNew York TimesThe Straits Times

However, the Trump administration's approach remains ambiguous, with President Trump downplaying the need for military intervention in Cuba, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not ruled out future actions. The administration's designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism has raised concerns about the potential for a similar operation to that in Venezuela.

The Hill

As U.S. pressure on Venezuela increases, Mexico has emerged as a crucial oil supplier to Cuba, reportedly sending an average of 12,284 barrels per day in 2025. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum insists that these shipments are consistent with historical levels and not significantly increased. However, experts note that the U.S. government is likely to scrutinize these exports closely, as they could complicate relations between the two nations.

The Independent

Critics of U.S. policy, including former CIA officer Fulton Armstrong, argue that the U.S. lacks sufficient leverage to instigate regime change in Cuba. Armstrong warns that any U.S. intervention could lead to chaos, mass migration, and increased poverty rather than a smooth transition to democracy. He describes the terrorism designation as “100 percent bogus,” asserting that it lacks evidence and could serve as a pretext for military action.

The Hill

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has condemned U.S. actions as “state terrorism,” asserting that Cuba is prepared to resist any external attempts to destabilize the regime. Meanwhile, Cuban opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer has expressed readiness to lead a transitional government with U.S. support, emphasizing the need for free elections and democratic governance.

The Hill

As the situation evolves, lawmakers in the U.S. are closely monitoring developments in Cuba and Venezuela. Some, like Senator Tim Kaine, are advocating for congressional approval before any military action related to Cuba. The potential for increased migration from Cuba remains a pressing concern for Florida officials, who are preparing for possible humanitarian crises.

The Hill

In summary, the interplay between U.S. foreign policy, the Venezuelan oil crisis, and Cuba's internal struggles presents a complex and evolving narrative that could have significant implications for the region.

The Straits Times