Forecast for Used Vehicle Prices in 2026

According to Cox Automotive, prices for used vehicles in the United States are projected to rise by 2% in 2026, as indicated by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. This forecast marks a return to a historically stable pricing trend following significant fluctuations in previous years. In 2023, used vehicle prices experienced a decline of nearly 15%, and in 2022, a drop of 7%, after soaring by 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020 due to pandemic-related inflation.

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The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index recorded a 0.1% month-over-month increase in December 2025, following a 1.3% rise in November. Year-over-year, prices for used vehicles rose by 0.4%. Notably, the luxury vehicle segment outperformed the overall market with a 1.8% increase, while compact cars, midsize vehicles, and pickups saw declines of 5.3%, 2.3%, and 3.4%, respectively. This mixed performance highlights the varying demand across different vehicle categories.

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Cox Automotive's interim chief economist, Jeremy Robb, noted several positive indicators that could bolster demand in the auto market as 2026 begins. These include the lowest auto loan rates in a year and anticipated increases in consumer tax refunds. Robb stated, “As this plays out, we are expecting to see stronger demand in the auto market as the year gets underway.” However, despite the expected price increase, used vehicle sales are forecasted to decline by 0.9% to 38.3 million units in 2026, with retail sales projected at 20.3 million, a decrease of 0.7%.

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While the forecast presents a generally positive outlook for the used vehicle market, some analysts express caution. The persistent higher prices compared to pre-pandemic levels may deter potential buyers, particularly those with tighter budgets. Additionally, the decline in sales volume raises concerns about the overall health of the used vehicle market, suggesting that while prices may rise, demand could remain weak.

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There is a discrepancy in the performance of various vehicle segments. While the luxury segment shows growth, other categories like compact and midsize vehicles are experiencing significant declines. This divergence may indicate shifting consumer preferences or economic factors that are not fully captured in the overall market analysis.

US Used Car Prices Rise for Second Month

• “As we move into 2026, a few positive indicators are emerging: New and used auto loan rates have fallen to the lowest level in a year, and consumers will soon see increased tax refunds hit their wallets.” — Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive Interim Chief Economist

US Used Car Prices Rise for Second Month

• “At Manheim, the year ended with days’ supply rising over the month, as is seasonally normal during the year-end holiday period.” — Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive Interim Chief Economist

US Used Car Prices Rise for Second Month

In summary, while the used vehicle market is expected to see a modest price increase in 2026, the overall sales volume is projected to decline, reflecting a complex interplay of economic factors and consumer behavior.

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