Full Breakdown
Decline of Russia's Retail and Import Markets in 2025
1/10/2026, 8:13:44 PM
Overview of the Decline in Parallel Imports
In 2025, Russia experienced a significant decline in its parallel imports, which fell by nearly 45% compared to the previous year. According to Anton Alikhanov, Russia's Industry and Trade Minister, the country imported $20.9 billion worth of goods through parallel-import schemes from January to November 2025, down from $37.9 billion during the same period in 2024. This decline is attributed to tightened controls on sanctions-bypassing supply routes, with customs officials given broader powers to seize shipments lacking proper documentation. As a result, up to 10% of imports were reportedly stuck at the Kazakh border by November 2025.
Impact on the Fashion Retail Sector
The fashion retail sector in Russia faced a severe downturn, with estimates indicating that 400 to 500 stores closed in 2025. Major brands, including Mellow and Just Clothes, ceased operations as consumer demand weakened and costs rose. Dmitry Tomilin, CEO of Eterna, noted a shift towards "maximum rational consumption," leading to a pessimistic outlook for 2026. The vacancy rates in shopping malls are projected to rise from 7.7% to 9.7%, as retailers push for rent reductions amid increasing financial pressures.
Market Correction and Brand Exits
The contraction in the fashion market follows a brief expansion period after the exit of Western brands in 2022. Analysts indicate that many domestic brands launched during this time, such as Yollo and Noun, failed to achieve operational break-even within the typical two- to three-year cycle. The number of foreign brands entering Russia has also decreased sharply, with only 12 new entrants in 2025, down from over 20 in previous years. Turkish retailers AC& Co and Mudo exited the market, citing weak demand and intense competition.
Official Statements & Responses
Alikhanov's ministry revised its earlier forecast for parallel imports, stating that the previously projected $25 billion for 2025 was no longer relevant. The Federal Customs Service reported a total of $224.4 billion in imported goods from January to October 2025, with a full-year projection of approximately $275 billion. Industry experts have expressed concerns about the sustainability of the retail market, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to changing consumer behavior.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics argue that the government's tightening of import controls and the resulting economic conditions are detrimental to both consumers and businesses. The closures of numerous fashion retailers have raised concerns about the long-term viability of the retail sector, with some analysts questioning whether Russia is facing economic stagnation or a technical recession.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While the decline in parallel imports and the fashion retail sector's struggles are well-documented, there is a lack of comprehensive data on the overall economic impact of these trends. Discrepancies exist regarding the exact number of store closures and the extent of consumer spending reductions, highlighting the need for further investigation into the retail landscape.
What's Next
As Russia's retail market continues to face challenges, stakeholders are urged to explore new strategies for recovery. The upcoming year is expected to be critical for the survival of many brands, with industry experts predicting further closures and a continued focus on cost-cutting measures.
