Full Breakdown
Lebanon's Disarmament Plan: Progress and Challenges in the South
1/10/2026, 9:51:32 PM
Completion of Phase One of Disarmament
On January 8, 2026, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) announced the completion of the first phase of its plan to disarm Hezbollah and other non-state armed groups in southern Lebanon. This phase focused on establishing operational control over the area south of the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometers from the Israeli border. The LAF stated that it had achieved its objectives effectively, although it acknowledged that further work was needed to clear unexploded ordnance and tunnels in the region. The Lebanese government had set a self-imposed deadline of the end of 2025 for this initial phase, which is part of a broader strategy to extend state authority over all arms in the country.
Context of the Disarmament Efforts
The disarmament initiative follows a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement in November 2024, which ended a year-long conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. This agreement mandated the disarmament of non-state actors, particularly Hezbollah, and required both parties to withdraw from southern Lebanon. However, Israel continues to occupy five strategic positions in the region, complicating the LAF's efforts to assert control. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office described Lebanon's progress as "an encouraging beginning" but emphasized that it was "far from sufficient," citing ongoing Hezbollah rearmament supported by Iran.
Official Statements and Responses
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun expressed full support for the army's achievements, stating that the deployment in the south aims to affirm the state's monopoly on arms and prevent the use of Lebanese territory for hostile actions. Meanwhile, Israeli officials have consistently criticized the LAF's disarmament efforts, arguing that Hezbollah still maintains significant military infrastructure and is rearming rapidly. The Israeli Foreign Ministry reiterated that extensive Hezbollah military capabilities remain intact south of the Litani River, and they expect the LAF to continue disarmament efforts throughout Lebanon.
Criticism and Opposition
Hezbollah has dismissed the disarmament efforts as part of a U.S.-Israeli agenda, asserting that the ceasefire agreement only applies to areas south of the Litani River. The group's Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, stated that Lebanon is not obligated to take further action until Israel fulfills its commitments under the ceasefire. Analysts warn that any attempt to disarm Hezbollah north of the Litani could provoke violent reactions from the group and its supporters, particularly given the ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
While the LAF claims to have established control in southern Lebanon, Israeli officials maintain that Hezbollah's presence and military capabilities have not been sufficiently diminished. The United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has reported no evidence of Hezbollah's infrastructure being rebuilt, contradicting Israeli assertions. This discrepancy highlights the complexities and challenges facing the disarmament process.
What's Next for Lebanon's Disarmament Plan
The next phase of the disarmament plan will focus on areas north of the Litani River, extending towards the Awali River near Sidon. Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal is expected to present a detailed plan to the Lebanese cabinet in February. However, the success of this phase hinges on addressing the ongoing Israeli occupation and military strikes, which Lebanon argues hinder its ability to enforce disarmament effectively.
Conclusion
Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah represent a significant step towards asserting state control over armed groups in the country. However, the interplay of regional tensions, Israeli military actions, and Hezbollah's resistance complicates the path forward. As Lebanon navigates these challenges, the potential for renewed conflict remains a pressing concern, underscoring the fragile nature of peace in the region.
