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Betting Surges on Khamenei's Fall Amid Deadly Protests

1/11/2026

45 10 Full Breakdown

Center

Khamenei's Removal Bets

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, is the subject of wagers on his removal on Polymarket, which reached $4.7 million in trade volume with 17% odds by January 31.
A significant internet blackout has been imposed in Iran as protests escalate, resulting in at least 42 reported deaths.
Traders are also betting on U.S. military actions, including a potential invasion of Venezuela.

Right

Rundeep's Profitable Bets

Polymarket account Rundeep has earned over $154,000 since June 2025 by betting on Israel-U.S. military actions.
Rundeep placed a $15,517.18 wager on an Israeli attack on Iran by January 31, with odds at 35%.
Polymarket traders have speculated on United States actions, including a 10% chance of invading Cuba in 2026.
Concerns about insider trading emerged after profits on Nicolás Maduro-related bets.
The legality of these markets remains uncertain.

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Khamenei's Removal Bets

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, is the subject of wagers on his removal on Polymarket, which reached $4.7 million in trade volume with 17% odds by January 31.
A significant internet blackout has been imposed in Iran as protests escalate, resulting in at least 42 reported deaths.
Traders are also betting on U.S. military actions, including a potential invasion of Venezuela.

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