Somalia Revokes UAE Military Agreements Amid Rising Tensions

The Somali government has officially canceled all agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), leading to the evacuation of UAE military personnel and equipment from military bases, including the strategic airbase in Bosaso. This decision follows accusations that the UAE facilitated the escape of Aidarous al-Zubaidi, a Yemeni separatist leader, through Somalia, prompting Mogadishu to suspend all military activities by the UAE within its borders. Eyewitness reports indicate that an average of six IL-76 cargo aircraft have been arriving daily at Bosaso, primarily for the evacuation of military assets, marking a significant shift in UAE operations in the region.

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The UAE has maintained a controversial relationship with Somalia, particularly through its support for regional administrations in Puntland and Somaliland, often bypassing the federal government in Mogadishu. This relationship has included substantial investments in infrastructure, such as the nearly half-billion-dollar Berbera port project, which is co-owned by the British government and intended to serve Ethiopia. However, the UAE's involvement has drawn criticism, with analysts suggesting that its actions have destabilized Somalia and undermined its sovereignty.

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A senior Somali official confirmed the suspension of UAE military activities, stating, “They were subsequently informed that all their military activities in Somalia... had been suspended.” The Somali government’s decision to revoke agreements was described as a response to “serious steps being taken to undermine the sovereignty, national unity, and political independence of the country.” This sentiment was echoed by former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who welcomed the government's actions.

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Critics of the UAE's involvement in Somalia argue that its military presence has exacerbated tensions and contributed to instability. Ebuzer Demirci, an independent researcher, noted that the UAE has lost societal consent within Somalia, becoming an object of public anger. Analysts predict that the UAE may respond by cutting funding to Mogadishu and supporting opposition figures, further complicating the political landscape as Somalia approaches elections.

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The cancellation of agreements with the UAE comes amid a broader context of Saudi-UAE rivalry, with Saudi Arabia increasingly engaging with Somalia to bolster its sovereignty. Recent diplomatic efforts by Riyadh, including an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation conference, indicate a shift in support towards Mogadishu. However, the looming expiration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's mandate raises concerns about the stability of future support from Saudi Arabia.

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As Somalia navigates its complex relationships with both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, President Mohamud is expected to visit Riyadh soon. The outcome of this visit and the potential for renewed support from Saudi Arabia could significantly impact Somalia's political landscape, especially with the upcoming elections and ongoing tensions with the UAE.

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• “They were subsequently informed that all their military activities in Somalia, including the use of airspace and the landing of cargo military aircraft in Bosaso, Berbera and Mogadishu, had been suspended,” — Senior Somali Official

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• “This decision applies to all agreements and cooperation in the ports of Berbera, Bosaso, and Kismayo,” — Somali Government Document

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• “The UAE will almost certainly cut funding to Mogadishu, support opposition figures, and encourage the formation of a parallel government in May, when the current president’s mandate expires and the transition is unlikely to be smooth,” — Khalif Abdullahi, Researcher

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• “According to Demirci, the UAE’s reputation in Somalia has plummeted as the “broader picture” of its activities in the country and region becomes clear.” — Ebuzer Demirci, Independent Researcher

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