Story perspectives

Seismic Threat in Sea of Marmara Could Devastate Istanbul

1/13/2026

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Summary

Story summary

A study finds a seismic threat beneath the Sea of Marmara that could affect Istanbul.
A 150-kilometer section of the Main Marmara Fault has remained locked since 1766, accumulating strain as adjacent segments move.
The locked zone could generate a major earthquake, potentially magnitude 7.3, if specific conditions align.
The findings stress that hazard assessments must include geological complexities, as simplified models may underestimate risk and impact millions in Istanbul.

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Story summary

A study finds a seismic threat beneath the Sea of Marmara that could affect Istanbul.
A 150-kilometer section of the Main Marmara Fault has remained locked since 1766, accumulating strain as adjacent segments move.
The locked zone could generate a major earthquake, potentially magnitude 7.3, if specific conditions align.
The findings stress that hazard assessments must include geological complexities, as simplified models may underestimate risk and impact millions in Istanbul.