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Story summary
- A constituency-level poll using multi-level regression and post-stratification predicts Reform will double its vote share to 31% and win a 335-seat majority.
- The Conservatives are projected to drop to 92 seats.
- Liberal Democrats would secure 60 seats and Greens would secure 52.
- The Scottish National Party (SNP) would win 44 seats.
- Labour would have 41 seats with 17% of the vote, and Your Party would receive 2% and four MPs.
