Impending Expiration of New START: Consequences and Perspectives

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which came into effect in 2010, is the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. It limits both nations to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and restricts them to 700 deployed delivery vehicles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and heavy bombers. The treaty was extended in 2021 for five years, but as of 2023, Russia suspended its participation, citing U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, while the U.S. has also partially ceased its compliance. With the treaty set to expire on February 5, 2026, President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to let it lapse without a replacement, stating, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll just do a better agreement.”

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Experts warn that allowing New START to expire without a contingency plan could trigger an unconstrained arms race between the U.S. and Russia. Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, cautioned that Trump's approach mirrors past failures, particularly regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, which has not resulted in a new agreement and has left Iran closer to nuclear capability. The absence of New START would eliminate the verification mechanisms that currently govern nuclear arsenals, such as on-site inspections and inventory updates.

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The U.S. and Russia have differing views on what a new treaty should encompass, particularly regarding China’s growing nuclear capabilities. The U.S. has sought to include China in a trilateral treaty format, which China rejects due to disparities in arsenal sizes. Conversely, Russia emphasizes the need to address the overall strategic balance, including missile defenses and conventional strike capabilities. Stephen Herzog, a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, noted that reconciling these priorities is challenging.

Responsble Statecraft

Critics argue that Trump's dismissal of New START's extension could lead to a dangerous escalation in nuclear armament. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, warned that failing to engage with Russia’s proposal for an interim deal could result in both nations increasing their nuclear arsenals for the first time in over 35 years. Pavel Devyatkin, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, suggested that even if Trump desires a better agreement, he should consider maintaining the existing caps while negotiations are ongoing.

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The U.S. State Department has not clarified whether the Trump administration will adhere to Russia's proposal to maintain New START's quantitative limits. The lack of a clear response raises concerns about the future of nuclear arms control between the two nations. As the expiration date approaches, the stakes remain high, with the potential for a significant shift in global nuclear dynamics if no agreement is reached.

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• “If it expires, it expires,” — President Donald Trump

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• “Once New START is gone, there are no international arms control agreements between the world’s two largest nuclear powers anymore,” — Geoff Wilson, National Security Reform Program

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• “ “The stakes are high.” — Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association

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