Myanmar's Election: A Test for ASEAN's Stance on Authoritarianism

Myanmar is currently undergoing its second round of voting in an election that is widely anticipated to reaffirm the military junta's grip on power, following its takeover in 2021. This election marks the first general election since the military ousted the democratically elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The ruling junta has claimed that these elections will restore power to the people, with the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) announcing victory in Suu Kyi's former parliamentary seat.

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As Myanmar navigates this electoral process, calls have intensified for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to reassess its strategy regarding the junta. Observers warn that ASEAN risks normalizing the junta's rule if it does not engage critically with the election outcomes. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, in his capacity as ASEAN chair, has indicated that the bloc will review developments post-election while avoiding premature legitimization of the junta's authority.

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Critics argue that treating the election as a legitimate step forward could undermine ASEAN's foundational principles, which emphasize stability over democratic values. The Five-Point Consensus established by ASEAN did not anticipate elections under emergency rule, where political pluralism is absent and mass displacement is prevalent. Accepting the junta's electoral timeline as progress could redefine compliance in a manner that legitimizes authoritarian governance.

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Dissenting voices within the region emphasize that the elections lack inclusivity and political freedom, which are essential for conferring legitimacy. The current political landscape in Myanmar is characterized by the elimination of competition, criminalization of dissent, and the use of law to exclude rivals. This context raises concerns that the election is not a pathway to reform but rather a mechanism for consolidating the junta's power.

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ASEAN's limited leverage since the coup has led to calls for a more robust response. Critics suggest that humanitarian aid should be separated from political validation, advocating for cross-border and non-state delivery mechanisms that do not reinforce junta-controlled channels. Furthermore, they argue that ASEAN must broaden its diplomatic engagement to include ethnic armed organizations and civil society networks, which are crucial political actors in Myanmar's future.

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ASEAN's leadership has expressed the need for clarity regarding the legitimacy of elections conducted without inclusivity and security. The bloc's approach must avoid ambiguity, as any perceived acceptance of the junta's authority could alienate Myanmar's opposition and undermine regional stability.

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The upcoming leadership of ASEAN, particularly under the Philippines in 2026, will be pivotal in shaping the bloc's response to Myanmar's situation. The Philippines has historically advocated for democratic norms, and its approach will determine whether Myanmar's election is viewed as a closed chapter or an ongoing challenge requiring sustained regional leadership.

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• “First, ASEAN should state unambiguously that elections conducted without inclusivity, security, and political freedom cannot confer legitimacy.” — Lowy Institute Analysts

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• “It is an attempt to stabilise authoritarian rule through electoral form.” — Lowy Institute Analysts

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• “Treating the election as a potential step forward risks hollowing out ASEAN’s own framework.” — Lowy Institute Analysts

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• “Ambiguity will be read by the junta as acceptance and by Myanmar’s opposition as abandonment.” — Lowy Institute Analysts

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