Global Nuclear Testing Milestone: A Fragile Peace

This week, the world marked a significant milestone, achieving the longest period without a nuclear test since the inception of nuclear weapons in 1945. As of now, it has been eight years, four months, and 11 days since North Korea conducted the last nuclear test on September 3, 2017. This achievement is notable given the recent tensions between nuclear powers, particularly the United States and Russia. Dylan Spaulding, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), emphasized the importance of this record, stating, “From now on, every day without a nuclear explosion will set a new record.”

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Since the first nuclear test, known as the Trinity test, the world has witnessed a total of 2,055 nuclear tests conducted by eight nations, with the United States leading with 1,030 tests, followed by Russia/USSR with 715. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, opened for signature in the late 1990s, has largely curtailed testing, although it has never been ratified by the U.S. North Korea remains a significant outlier, continuing its nuclear ambitions despite international sanctions.

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Despite the record, concerns are mounting regarding the potential resumption of nuclear testing by the U.S. and Russia. President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to restart nuclear tests, claiming it is necessary to maintain parity with Russia and China. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed military preparations for potential testing. Experts, including Spaulding, argue that such actions are unnecessary, as current technologies allow for sub-critical tests that do not require full detonations.

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The impending expiration of the New Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (START) on February 5, 2026, adds to the uncertainty. This treaty limits the number of deployable nuclear warheads for both the U.S. and Russia to 1,550. The UCS warns that if the treaty lapses, both nations could rapidly increase their nuclear arsenals, exacerbating global tensions and the risk of catastrophic miscalculations. The potential for the U.S. to field an additional 480 nuclear weapons at bomber bases within weeks highlights the urgency of the situation.

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Critics argue that resuming nuclear tests would undermine global stability rather than enhance deterrence. Spaulding cautioned that such actions could project a lack of confidence in the U.S. nuclear stockpile, potentially destabilizing international relations further. The UCS report underscores that both the U.S. and Russia already possess sufficient nuclear capabilities to cause widespread devastation, and increasing their arsenals could heighten the risk of accidents or miscalculations.

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While the world celebrates a record duration without nuclear tests, the overall sentiment among experts is one of caution. The stability achieved is precarious, with significant geopolitical tensions and the potential for renewed testing looming on the horizon. As Spaulding noted, “While the world has quietly broken a record for the longest period of time without a nuclear test, it is clear that this stability is fragile.”

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• “As of today, the world has gone eight years, four months, and 11 days without a nuclear test … From now on, every day without a nuclear explosion will set a new record,” — Dylan Spaulding, Senior Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists

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• “Both Russia and the United States already have more than enough nuclear weapons to devastate each other many times over.” — Jennifer Knox, Policy and Research Analyst, Union of Concerned Scientists

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