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U.S. Death Rate to Exceed Birth Rate by 2030

1/18/2026

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Story summary
  • The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) foresees U.S. death rate surpassing birth rate by 2030 due to aging and declining fertility.
  • The total fertility rate is projected to drop to 1.53 births per woman, far below replacement level of 2.1.
  • The shift could create challenges, including labor shortages and higher pressure on Social Security and Medicare.
  • Policymakers are urged to respond with immigration reform, family support policies, and public health investments.