Texas Senate Race: Talarico Leads Democratic Primary, GOP Contest Tightens

A recent Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey reveals significant dynamics in the Texas Senate race as the primaries approach on March 3, 2026. State Representative James Talarico leads U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett by 9 percentage points in the Democratic primary, garnering 47% support compared to Crockett's 38%, with 15% of voters undecided. On the Republican side, incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are in a closely contested race, with Paxton at 27% and Cornyn at 26%, while Representative Wesley Hunt trails at 16%. A runoff is likely if no candidate secures a majority.

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Talarico's support is notably strong among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while Crockett commands overwhelming backing from Black voters (80%). Gender dynamics also play a role, with Talarico leading among men (52% to 30%) and women nearly evenly split (44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett). This demographic split highlights the challenges both candidates face in consolidating support across different voter groups.

Emerson College Polling

In hypothetical matchups against Republican candidates, Talarico and Crockett both tie with Paxton at 46%. However, Cornyn leads Talarico (47% to 44%) and Crockett (48% to 43%). These results suggest that while Democrats are gaining traction, they still face significant hurdles in a state that has historically leaned Republican.

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The economy remains the top concern for Texas voters, with 28% identifying it as the most pressing issue, followed by threats to democracy (17%) and immigration (14%). This shift in priorities could influence voter turnout and preferences as the election approaches.

Texas Tribune

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted the divided Republican electorate, stating, “Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot.” This division could lead to a runoff, which may further complicate the GOP's strategy heading into the general election.

Politico

Democrats are optimistic about their chances, particularly if Paxton wins the GOP primary, as his political controversies could alienate moderate voters. However, the Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as likely Republican, indicating the uphill battle Democrats face in flipping the seat.

The Hill

While Talarico's lead in the Democratic primary is clear, previous polls indicated Crockett had a significant advantage. The Emerson poll shows a notable 17-point swing toward Talarico since the last survey, raising questions about the stability of voter preferences in the lead-up to the primaries.

Texas Tribune

The Democratic and Republican primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with potential runoff elections on May 26 if no candidate achieves a majority. As the primaries approach, the dynamics of voter turnout and candidate positioning will be critical in shaping the outcome of the Senate race in Texas.

Newsweek