Vietnam's 14th National Congress: To Lam's Bid for Consolidated Power

Vietnam's ruling Communist Party is set to hold its 14th National Congress from January 19 to 25, 2026, where it will finalize its leadership roster for the next five years and outline ambitious economic goals. General Secretary To Lam is expected to retain his position and is also vying for the presidency, a move that could consolidate power in a manner reminiscent of Chinese President Xi Jinping's governance style. The congress will see approximately 1,600 delegates representing over five million party members elect a new Central Committee, which will subsequently select the Politburo and other key leadership roles.

The Straits Times

The internal dynamics of the Communist Party reveal a power struggle between factions aligned with the police and the military. Lam, with a background in the Ministry of Public Security, is seen as leading the police faction, while Minister of National Defense Phan Van Giang represents military interests. Analysts suggest that if Lam successfully merges the roles of general secretary and president, it would mark a significant shift in Vietnam's political landscape, potentially leading to a more centralized authority. However, this would require constitutional amendments and approval from the Central Committee.

Taipei Times

The congress aims to set comprehensive development goals, including a target of 10% annual economic growth and a GDP per capita of approximately $5,500 by 2026. Despite achieving an 8.02% GDP growth in 2025, the party faces challenges such as global economic downturns and tariffs from the United States, its largest export market. Lam's administration has emphasized the importance of the private sector as a driving force for economic growth, although the party's collective decision-making process may temper the pace of reforms.

The Straits Times

Critics, including dissident lawyer Dang Dinh Manh, have expressed disappointment over the lack of political reforms, emphasizing the need for greater self-determination for the Vietnamese people. Observers note that while Lam's leadership has focused on economic growth and anti-corruption measures, it has not translated into political liberalization. The party's tight control over media and dissent remains a significant concern, with over 160 political prisoners currently jailed.

The Straits Times

Senior party officials have reiterated their commitment to achieving a developed, high-income nation by 2045, with Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung stating that the congress will review the past 40 years of the Doi Moi (Renewal) process. Lam's leadership is characterized by a focus on stability and security, with an emphasis on maintaining Vietnam's "bamboo diplomacy" to navigate relations with major powers like the United States and China.

Taipei Times

Following the congress, Vietnam will hold parliamentary elections in March 2026, where new state and government leaders will be appointed. Analysts predict that the new head of government will face the challenge of sustaining economic growth while navigating the complexities of internal party dynamics and external pressures from global trading partners.

The Straits Times

• “The congress is specifically about setting goals through 2030, and the headline signals point to growth ambition, an infrastructure push and a stronger domestic ‘national champions’ agenda,” — Dr. Nguyen Khac Giang, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

The Straits Times

• “However, what I most eagerly awaited was political reform, to return power and self-determination to the people and serve as the driving force that would help the country grow in all aspects, including the national character,” — Dang Dinh Manh, Dissident Lawyer

The Straits Times

• “Diplomatic diversification is the key method of achieving growth goals,” — Khang Vu, Vietnam Expert

Taipei Times

This congress represents a pivotal moment for Vietnam as it seeks to balance economic ambitions with the realities of its political structure and international relations.

The Straits Times