Full Breakdown
Ocean Damage Nearly Doubles Economic Cost of Climate Change
1/19/2026, 11:51:02 PM
Integrating Ocean Damage into Climate Economics
A recent study conducted by researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego has for the first time included the economic damages to the ocean in the social cost of carbon. This new metric, referred to as the "blue" social cost of carbon, reveals that the global cost of carbon dioxide emissions nearly doubles when ocean-related damages are factored in. The study highlights the significant economic impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure, which have historically been overlooked in climate cost assessments.
Key Findings of the Study
The researchers found that without considering ocean impacts, the social cost of carbon is estimated at $51 per ton of carbon dioxide emitted. However, when ocean damages are included, this figure increases by an additional $46.2, resulting in a total of $97.2 per ton—a 91% increase. In 2024, global carbon dioxide emissions were projected to be approximately 41.6 billion tons, suggesting that ocean-related damages could amount to nearly $2 trillion in one year alone.
The study also projects that by the year 2100, market damages from lost fisheries revenue could reach $1.66 trillion annually, while non-use values, reflecting the intrinsic worth of ocean ecosystems, could total $224 billion. Additionally, health-related losses due to reduced nutritional availability from impacted fisheries may reach $182 billion each year.
Methodology and Implications
To arrive at these figures, the researchers employed integrated assessment models that considered both market and non-market values. Market values included direct economic losses from fisheries and trade, while non-market values encompassed health impacts from diminished seafood nutrition and recreational opportunities. The study emphasizes that the ocean's value extends beyond monetary measures, as cultural and ecological losses cannot be fully captured by financial metrics.
Environmental economist Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, who led the study, stated, “If we don’t put a price tag on the harm that climate change causes to the ocean, it will be invisible to key decision makers.” This assertion underscores the importance of incorporating ocean damage into climate policy discussions to provide a more comprehensive understanding of climate-related costs.
Unequal Distribution of Impacts
The study also highlights the unequal distribution of ocean damage across the globe, with islands and small economies being disproportionately affected. These regions often rely heavily on seafood for nutrition, making them particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of ocean warming, which reduces the availability of essential nutrients in seafood. This loss can lead to increased health risks and mortality rates in affected populations.
Official Statements and Future Directions
Kate Ricke, a climate scientist and co-author of the study, noted that the blue social cost of carbon serves as a crucial tool for environmental decision-makers, aiding in cost-benefit analyses that inform policy design and risk management. The study advocates for a reevaluation of how climate change impacts are calculated, emphasizing the need for a more inclusive approach that recognizes the ocean's vital role in global ecosystems and economies.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If we don't put a price tag on the harm that climate change causes to the ocean, it will be invisible to key decision makers,” — Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, Environmental Economist
- “Protecting the environment can have high up-front costs, so we need methods for thinking about the trade-offs we are making as a society,” — Kate Ricke, Climate Scientist
This groundbreaking research, published in *Nature Climate Change*, aims to reshape the understanding of climate change's economic impacts by integrating ocean damage into the broader narrative of environmental costs.
