Story perspectives

China to Overtake U.S. by 2035, Expert Predicts

1/20/2026

Center

Xuetong Predicts Shift

Yan Xuetong, a Chinese political scientist, predicts that by 2035 the United States will lose its strategic advantage to China.
In his book, competition will stay intense, especially during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, but direct-conflict risk may decline.
By 2035, Brazil and Russia will have stronger ties with China than with the United States.
Germany and France will adopt a neutral stance between China and the United States.

Right

China's Missile Threat

The Pentagon's report identifies the DF-27 missile as capable of striking up to 8,000 kilometers, potentially threatening US naval bases in the Eastern Pacific.
Analysts say the DF-27 could boost China's military capabilities, but its effectiveness at maximum range remains uncertain, and budget constraints could limit deployment.
If operational, the DF-27 could shift the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific, echoing historical naval warfare dynamics.

History

Historical Context

The Cold War, initiated in 1947, was characterized by ideological and military tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union, marked by events like the Berlin Blockade and the Cuban Missile Crisis. The U.S. military budget reached $1.5 trillion in 2021, reflecting ongoing defense priorities. Current shifts in global power dynamics, particularly with China's influence, echo the historical alliances formed during this period.

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Xuetong Predicts Shift

Yan Xuetong, a Chinese political scientist, predicts that by 2035 the United States will lose its strategic advantage to China.
In his book, competition will stay intense, especially during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, but direct-conflict risk may decline.
By 2035, Brazil and Russia will have stronger ties with China than with the United States.
Germany and France will adopt a neutral stance between China and the United States.

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