Thermal Coal Exporters Face Declining Markets and Search for Growth

In 2025, thermal coal exporters experienced their first annual contraction in sales volumes since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with total export volumes dropping by 33 million tons, or 3%, to approximately 936 million tons. This decline is attributed to a significant reduction in imports from the top three coal importers—China, India, and Japan—who collectively cut their purchases by nearly 50 million metric tons. This synchronized downturn raises concerns that coal exports may have peaked, as many energy systems increasingly shift towards cleaner power generation sources.

Thermal coal's few growth markets in focus after rare export dip

China remains the largest importer of thermal coal, purchasing 308 million tons in 2025, followed by India with 157 million tons and Japan with 100 million tons. Together, these three countries accounted for around 59% of global thermal coal imports. However, the trend indicates a decline in coal's share of utility power generation in these nations. For instance, China's rapid deployment of renewable energy and efforts to bolster its domestic coal mining sector are expected to further decrease its coal import needs. Similarly, Japan's gradual restart of its nuclear power sector is reducing its reliance on coal.

Thermal coal's few growth markets in focus after rare export dip

Despite the declines in major markets, several emerging countries are increasing their coal imports. Bangladesh saw the most significant rise, with a 4.9 million ton increase to a record 17 million tons, while Turkey's imports rose by 4.5 million tons to 32 million tons. South Korea also increased its purchases by 3.65 million tons, reaching approximately 76 million tons. In these markets, coal's share of electricity generation remains substantial, with Bangladesh's coal contribution exceeding 40% for the first time in 2025. This trend suggests that while major economies are moving away from coal, emerging markets may provide new opportunities for exporters.

Thermal coal's few growth markets in focus after rare export dip

As coal exporters confront declining volumes in established markets, they may need to adapt their strategies to focus on emerging markets where coal remains a primary energy source. Countries in Southeast Asia, Turkey, and parts of Africa are likely to continue relying on coal due to its cost-effectiveness compared to other energy sources. However, the long-term outlook remains uncertain as the global energy landscape evolves towards more sustainable practices.

Thermal coal's few growth markets in focus after rare export dip

Industry analysts emphasize the need for coal exporters to diversify their markets in response to the declining demand from traditional importers. The shift towards renewable energy sources is a critical factor influencing these changes, prompting exporters to seek new opportunities in regions where coal still plays a significant role in energy generation.

Thermal coal's few growth markets in focus after rare export dip

While the overall trend indicates a decline in coal imports from major economies, the increase in imports from emerging markets presents a complex picture. The extent to which these emerging markets can offset losses from larger economies remains to be seen, and further data will be necessary to assess the sustainability of this growth.

Thermal coal's few growth markets in focus after rare export dip

“Those markets are only a fraction of the likes of China and India, but coal exporters facing steady volume falls into top economies may not be in a position to be picky, and will have to look farther afield for growth from now on.” — Industry Analyst

Thermal coal's few growth markets in focus after rare export dip