The Emergence of a New Global Order: Mark Carney's Vision for Middle Powers

Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, has articulated a significant shift in the global order, particularly in light of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. He posits that the traditional rules-based international order is collapsing, necessitating a new approach for middle powers. Carney's remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026, emphasize that the era of American hegemony, once a stabilizing force, has devolved into a source of destabilization. He argues that countries must recognize this rupture and adapt accordingly, rather than cling to outdated frameworks.

Carney to democracies: the old world order is gone — act like it

Carney draws parallels to Václav Havel's concept of "living within a lie," suggesting that many nations have participated in a façade of compliance with the international order, despite its inherent flaws. He asserts that the system's power lies not in its truth but in the collective willingness to uphold it. However, as the geopolitical landscape shifts, Carney warns that this compliance is no longer tenable. The increasing use of economic integration as a tool of coercion by great powers has exposed the vulnerabilities of nations that rely on this system.

Carney to democracies: the old world order is gone — act like it

In response to these challenges, Carney advocates for greater strategic autonomy among middle powers, such as Canada, Australia, and countries in the European Union. He emphasizes the necessity for these nations to collaborate and develop independent strategies in areas like energy, food security, and finance. Carney argues that without such autonomy, countries risk becoming subservient to larger powers, thus undermining their sovereignty.

A Carney doctrine for a third way in global politics

Carney's vision includes a commitment to principled foreign policy, which balances values with pragmatic engagement. He states, "We must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu." This approach reflects a recognition that middle powers must unite to negotiate from a position of strength rather than weakness. Furthermore, Carney has expressed strong support for Ukraine and Greenland, asserting Canada's role as a core member of the Coalition of the Willing and opposing tariffs related to Greenland.

Carney to democracies: the old world order is gone — act like it

Despite Carney's forward-thinking approach, some critics argue that there are contradictions between Canada's rhetoric and its actions. They contend that while Carney calls for autonomy and cooperation, Canada’s foreign policy may still reflect subordination to larger powers, particularly the United States. This critique highlights the complexities and challenges that middle powers face in navigating their relationships with hegemonic nations.

A Carney doctrine for a third way in global politics

• “You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.” — Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada

Carney to democracies: the old world order is gone — act like it

• “A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile, and less sustainable.” — Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada

Carney to democracies: the old world order is gone — act like it

• “The table or the menu: what middle powers need to do Our view is the middle powers must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.” — Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada

Carney to democracies: the old world order is gone — act like it

As the global landscape continues to evolve, Carney's doctrine for middle powers may pave the way for new alliances and partnerships. Canada is actively pursuing free-trade agreements with countries such as India and members of ASEAN, aiming to bolster cooperation among middle powers. The success of this approach will depend on the ability of these nations to navigate the complexities of great power rivalry while maintaining their sovereignty and integrity.

A Carney doctrine for a third way in global politics