Escalating Conflict in South Sudan: SPLA-IO Advances Toward Juba

On January 25, 2026, Lt. Gen. Wesley Welebe Samson, Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations of the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO), announced a significant escalation in military operations, declaring the beginning of the "penultimate phase" of their campaign against the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF). Welebe emphasized the SPLA-IO's advances toward the capital, Juba, from multiple directions, framing the conflict as a struggle to dismantle what he termed a "rogue regime." This declaration coincides with increased clashes in Jonglei and Upper Nile states, raising concerns about potential civilian casualties and humanitarian crises.

South Sudan army chief gives soldiers seven days to crush rebellion

In response to the SPLA-IO's advances, South Sudan's army chief, Gen. Paul Nang Majok, has mobilized reinforcements to the strategic town of Bor, which is critical for controlling access to Juba. Majok issued a directive for his troops to "crush the rebellion" within seven days, highlighting the urgency of the situation. The South Sudanese army is reportedly receiving support from Ugandan forces, although the exact number of troops involved remains unverified. This military buildup has sparked fears of a return to full-scale civil war, reminiscent of the conflict that erupted in 2013.

South Sudan army chief gives soldiers seven days to crush rebellion

The ongoing violence has prompted urgent evacuation orders for civilians in areas controlled by the SPLA-IO. The military campaign, dubbed "Operation Enduring Peace," has led to significant displacement, with local officials reporting airstrikes and casualties. The UN's peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, urging leaders to prioritize dialogue and reconciliation. The deteriorating security situation has raised alarms among human rights organizations, which warn that inflammatory rhetoric from military leaders could incite mass atrocities.

South Sudan army chief gives soldiers seven days to crush rebellion

The SPLA-IO's aggressive stance has drawn criticism from various quarters, including the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, which expressed concern over the potential for ethnic violence and mass atrocities. Lt. Gen. Peter Thok Chuol Luak, acting chief of staff for the SPLA-IO, issued warnings to Juba's residents about imminent military confrontations, advising them to evacuate or remain indoors. Meanwhile, the governor of Juba state, Emmanuel Adil Anthony, urged residents to disregard these threats, reflecting the complex dynamics of fear and resilience among the population.

South Sudan army chief gives soldiers seven days to crush rebellion

As South Sudan approaches elections scheduled for December 2026 amid a deepening economic crisis, the escalating conflict poses a significant threat to the fragile peace established by the 2018 peace agreement. Analysts warn that if hostilities continue to intensify, political priorities may shift from governance and reform to military survival. The situation remains precarious, with both sides facing potential accountability for human rights abuses as the international community watches closely.

• “Your bravery marks a decisive turning point — the beginning of the penultimate phase of this struggle.” — Lt. Gen. Wesley Welebe Samson, SPLA-IO Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations

• “I am giving you seven days only to finish the mission – to crush the rebellion in those areas and recapture them.” — Gen. Paul Nang Majok, Chief of the Defence Force

South Sudan army chief gives soldiers seven days to crush rebellion

• “We strongly recommend that all South Sudanese citizens in areas on the outskirts of Juba either evacuate or remain indoors," Gen Thok wrote.” — Lt. Gen. Peter Thok Chuol Luak, SPLA-IO Acting Chief of Staff

South Sudan army chief gives soldiers seven days to crush rebellion

• “If the fighting intensifies, political priorities will shift from reforms and civic processes back to survival and military calculations,” — Boboya James Edimon, Head of the Institute of Policy and Research