U.S. Strategy in Venezuela: Challenges and Opportunities Following Maduro's Ouster

The recent U.S. military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, has resulted in significant political shifts in Venezuela. Delcy Rodríguez, previously Maduro's vice president, has assumed the role of interim president. However, U.S. intelligence reports indicate uncertainty regarding her willingness to sever ties with adversarial nations such as Iran, China, and Russia, which complicates the Trump administration's strategy in the region.

US intelligence raises doubts about Venezuela leader's cooperationU.S. Intelligence Casts Doubt On Whether Venezuela's Interim Leader Is Willing To Cut Ties With Global Foes

U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have expressed a desire for Rodríguez to align with American interests by expelling diplomats from these countries and facilitating U.S. investment in Venezuela's oil sector. Rubio stated that the administration is prepared to use force if necessary to ensure Rodríguez's cooperation, emphasizing that the U.S. aims to stabilize Venezuela to enable free and fair elections in the future. Despite this, Rodríguez has publicly resisted U.S. interference, declaring, "Enough with the orders," and asserting that Venezuelan politics should resolve internal conflicts.

U.S. Intelligence Casts Doubt On Whether Venezuela's Interim Leader Is Willing To Cut Ties With Global FoesUS intelligence raises doubts about Venezuela leader's cooperationRubio Says US Ready to Use Force to Ensure Venezuela’s Cooperation

Since assuming power, Rodríguez has taken steps to align with U.S. interests, including releasing political prisoners and preparing for U.S. companies to re-enter Venezuela's oil sector. However, her administration faces skepticism from hard-line supporters of the former regime, who accuse her of betraying the socialist movement. Reports suggest that Rodríguez had previously communicated a willingness to cooperate with U.S. officials, although she has since distanced herself from those assertions, claiming they were misrepresented.

Public defiance, private deals: Delcy Rodríguez tests fragile U.S.–Venezuela truce

Critics of the Trump administration's approach argue that maintaining Maduro's loyalists in power, including Rodríguez, could undermine the goal of establishing a democratic government in Venezuela. Some Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns about the lack of transparency surrounding the military operation and the potential for Rodríguez to entrench her power without a clear timeline for elections. They argue that the administration's focus on oil interests may overshadow the need for genuine democratic reforms.

Public defiance, private deals: Delcy Rodríguez tests fragile U.S.–Venezuela truce

There are conflicting reports regarding Rodríguez's commitment to U.S. demands. While some sources indicate that she and her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, had pledged to cooperate with the U.S. following Maduro's ouster, Rodríguez has publicly denied these claims, labeling them as "fake." Additionally, human rights organizations dispute the official figures regarding the release of political prisoners, suggesting that the actual number may be significantly lower than reported.

Public defiance, private deals: Delcy Rodríguez tests fragile U.S.–Venezuela truce

The future of Venezuela remains uncertain as the Trump administration navigates its relationship with Rodríguez. While there are indications of cooperation, the administration is also exploring alternative leadership options, including opposition leader María Corina Machado, who is viewed favorably by U.S. officials. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Rodríguez can effectively stabilize the country and meet U.S. expectations, or if the administration will need to reconsider its strategy in light of her actions and the broader political landscape.

US intelligence raises doubts about Venezuela leader's cooperation

• “Enough with the orders,” — Delcy Rodríguez, Interim President of Venezuela

U.S. Intelligence Casts Doubt On Whether Venezuela's Interim Leader Is Willing To Cut Ties With Global Foes

• “We are prepared to use force to ensure maximum cooperation if other methods fail,” — Marco Rubio, Secretary of State

Rubio Says US Ready to Use Force to Ensure Venezuela’s Cooperation

• “We are not afraid of having relations with the United States, but those relations must be based on respect — respect for international law and basic human dignity.” — Delcy Rodríguez, Interim President of Venezuela

Public defiance, private deals: Delcy Rodríguez tests fragile U.S.–Venezuela truce

• “You can have elections, you have elections all day, but if the opposition has no access to the media, if opposition candidates are routinely dismissed and unable to be on the ballot because of the government, those aren’t free and fair elections,” — Marco Rubio, Secretary of State

Rubio digs in on cooperation with Venezuela’s Rodríguez, lack of immediate elections