Political Turmoil in Guinea-Bissau Following November Coup

Guinea-Bissau is currently experiencing significant political turmoil following a military coup on November 26, 2025, just one day before the announcement of presidential election results. The coup, led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man and a group of military generals, was purportedly aimed at protecting the country from drug cartels' influence over politics. However, opposition figures allege that the deposed president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, orchestrated the coup himself to avoid admitting defeat in the elections, where opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa reportedly won by a wide margin.

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

The political situation in Guinea-Bissau has been fraught with instability since the controversial legislative and presidential elections in November 2025. The largest opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), was barred from participating, leading to widespread distrust among opposition groups. Following the coup, all political activities, including demonstrations and strikes, have been banned, leaving the country without functioning state institutions.

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

Opposition leaders and family members of detained political figures have expressed outrage over the coup and the subsequent treatment of political prisoners. Denisa Pereira, daughter of a detained opposition figure, criticized the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for its perceived inaction, questioning its role in the crisis. Mariano Quade, a key figure in Dias da Costa's campaign, has called for military intervention by ECOWAS to restore democratic order, warning that failure to act would undermine the bloc's credibility.

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

In response to mounting international pressure, including suspensions from the African Union and ECOWAS, the military leadership has announced plans to hold elections on December 6, 2025, and restore constitutional order. However, the president of Guinea-Bissau's National Electoral Commission (CNE), N'pabi Cabi, has indicated that financial constraints and logistical issues, such as a lack of ballot boxes and computers, may hinder the feasibility of these elections.

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

Despite the military's announcement of upcoming elections, skepticism remains regarding their viability. The CNE has proposed a complete re-registration of voters, further complicating the electoral process. The situation remains fluid, with significant uncertainty surrounding the timeline and conditions under which elections may occur.

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

• "There is clear evidence that the deposed president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, himself is behind this so-called coup." — Carmelita Pires, Former Justice Minister

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

• "A military intervention is the last remaining option for ECOWAS." — Mariano Quade, Campaign Leader

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

• "In the remote town of Bafata, for example, there is not a single ballot box left." — N'pabi Cabi, President of the National Electoral Commission

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau

As Guinea-Bissau navigates this complex political landscape, the actions of both domestic and international actors will be critical in determining the future of its governance and stability.

Confusion, anger in post-coup Guinea-Bissau