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Asteroid Threat: 4% Chance of Moon Collision in 2032

1/30/2026

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Summary

Story summary

The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4 percent chance to collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032.
The collision is unlikely but could yield data on the Moon.
The impact would form a crater 1 km wide and 260 m deep, releasing energy like a nuclear explosion.
It could eject up to 400 kg of debris, reaching Earth and risking populated areas, and may trigger a magnitude 5.0 moonquake.

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Story summary

The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4 percent chance to collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032.
The collision is unlikely but could yield data on the Moon.
The impact would form a crater 1 km wide and 260 m deep, releasing energy like a nuclear explosion.
It could eject up to 400 kg of debris, reaching Earth and risking populated areas, and may trigger a magnitude 5.0 moonquake.