The Impending Expiration of the New START Treaty and Its Consequences

The New START Treaty, signed on April 8, 2010, by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, is the last major arms control agreement between the United States and Russia. It limits each country to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and caps the number of delivery systems at 700. The treaty also includes verification measures, such as short-notice inspections, to ensure compliance. However, these inspections were suspended in 2023 after Russia halted participation in response to U.S. support for Ukraine.

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The treaty is set to expire on February 5, 2026, and without a new agreement, both nations would be free to expand their nuclear arsenals without constraints for the first time in over 50 years. Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed an informal extension of the treaty's limits for another year, but U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to respond formally. Trump has indicated a desire for a "better" treaty but has not committed to any specific course of action.

Explainer-What is the New START nuclear treaty and why does its expiry matter?

Experts warn that the expiration of New START could trigger an unregulated nuclear arms race, reminiscent of the Cold War era. Without the treaty, both countries may increase their missile numbers and deploy additional warheads based on worst-case assumptions about each other's capabilities. This scenario raises concerns about strategic miscalculations and the potential for nuclear conflict. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has noted that the world is closer to nuclear annihilation than ever, exacerbated by the rise of China as a third nuclear power.

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Opinions on how to proceed with the New START Treaty are divided within the U.S. Some arms control advocates argue that maintaining the treaty's limits is essential to prevent a costly arms race and reduce the risk of catastrophic misinterpretations during crises. Democratic Senator Ed Markey has emphasized that exceeding New START limits would likely provoke a similar response from Russia and China, leading to an unnecessary arms race.

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Conversely, some experts argue that the U.S. should not trust Putin and should instead prepare to increase its nuclear arsenal to deter threats from both Russia and China. Franklin Miller, a member of a bipartisan Congressional commission, has stated that the U.S. must be capable of addressing simultaneous threats from both nations.

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The Kremlin has expressed concern over the potential gap in nuclear arms regulation if New START expires. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, highlighted the seriousness of this situation, stating, "The expiry of the New START treaty could lead to a serious gap in the legal framework regulating nuclear arms." Meanwhile, a White House official indicated that Trump would clarify his intentions regarding nuclear arms control on his own timeline.

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As the expiration date approaches, the lack of a successor treaty poses significant risks to global security. The absence of legal constraints could lead to an escalation of nuclear capabilities and a deterioration of international stability. The situation calls for urgent diplomatic efforts to either extend the New START Treaty or negotiate a new agreement that addresses the evolving nuclear landscape, including the growing arsenal of China. The stakes are high, and the world watches closely as the deadline looms.

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