India’s Hesitation on Russia’s Troika Proposal with China

Russia's proposal to revive the Russia-India-China (RIC) trialogue has resurfaced amidst ongoing geopolitical shifts. Initially suggested in 1998 by then-Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, the RIC framework has struggled to gain traction due to persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and China. The recent call for revitalization comes from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who emphasized the importance of multipolarity and the strategic nature of Russia's partnerships with both India and China.

Will India warm to Russia’s bid to revive troika with China?

During a press conference on January 20, 2023, Lavrov highlighted the need to activate the RIC trilateral format, which he described as foundational to the BRICS grouping and essential for a multipolar world. He characterized Russia's relationship with India as "particularly privileged" and noted unprecedented levels of cooperation with China. However, the response from India is expected to be cautious, given the historical and ongoing border tensions with China and a reluctance to align too closely with an anti-Western bloc.

Will India warm to Russia’s bid to revive troika with China?

Critics argue that India's participation in the RIC could compromise its strategic autonomy and further entrench its position in a geopolitical rivalry against Western powers. Analysts point out that India's historical context, particularly its tense relations with China, complicates its willingness to engage in a trilateral format that includes Beijing. This skepticism is compounded by India's desire to maintain a balanced foreign policy that does not alienate Western allies.

Will India warm to Russia’s bid to revive troika with China?

Lavrov's assertion that "multipolarity is here to stay" reflects Russia's strategic vision for global governance, positioning itself as a leader among emerging economies. However, Indian officials have not publicly committed to the revival of the RIC, indicating a preference for bilateral relations over multilateral frameworks that may involve contentious partners.

Will India warm to Russia’s bid to revive troika with China?

While Lavrov's statements suggest a strong push for the RIC, there is a notable absence of enthusiasm from Indian officials, highlighting a potential gap in diplomatic alignment. The lack of a clear response from New Delhi raises questions about the feasibility of the proposed trilateral cooperation, especially in light of ongoing Sino-Indian border disputes.

Will India warm to Russia’s bid to revive troika with China?

As Russia continues to advocate for the RIC, the coming months may reveal whether India will engage in discussions about the trilateral format. The geopolitical landscape, particularly the dynamics between India, China, and Russia, will play a critical role in shaping future diplomatic engagements and the potential for renewed cooperation.

Will India warm to Russia’s bid to revive troika with China?

• “We need to activate the RIC trilateral format, which in a way is the foundation of Brics, a key element of a multipolar world,” — Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister

Will India warm to Russia’s bid to revive troika with China?