U.S. and Russia on the Brink of a New Nuclear Arms Race

The New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. This treaty, signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, limits each country to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles. The expiration of New START raises concerns that both nations could enter an unrestrained nuclear arms race for the first time since the Cold War.

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Historically, arms control treaties have played a crucial role in preventing nuclear escalation between the U.S. and Russia. Since the Cold War, various agreements have been established to limit nuclear arsenals and promote transparency. The New START treaty was designed to reduce the risk of misunderstandings and economic burdens associated with an arms race. However, the current geopolitical climate, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has strained relations and complicated arms control discussions.

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed extending the existing limits on missiles and warheads for an additional year to allow time for negotiations on a new treaty. In contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to replace New START with a more comprehensive agreement, stating, "if it expires, it expires." Trump has also indicated a broader goal of pursuing denuclearization with both Russia and China, although Beijing has rejected the notion of joining disarmament talks, citing the disparity in nuclear arsenals.

US and Russia on the verge of an uncontrolled arms race for the first time since the Cold War - MediaBarring last-minute nuclear deal, US, Russia teeter over new arms raceBarring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms raceEnd of an era as US, Russia prepare to exit final nuclear arms treatyThe nuclear fallacy: Why deterrence can't stop the AGI arms race

Critics of Trump's approach argue that allowing New START to expire could lead to a destabilizing arms race. Paul Dean, a former arms control official, emphasized the importance of maintaining existing limits to reduce the risk of misinterpretation during crises. Democratic Senator Ed Markey warned that exceeding New START limits would prompt Russia and China to escalate their nuclear capabilities, potentially igniting a new arms race that the U.S. cannot afford.

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race

Conversely, some experts advocate for increasing U.S. nuclear capabilities to deter threats from both Russia and China. Franklin Miller, a member of a bipartisan Congressional commission, argued that the current treaty constraints are insufficient to address the dual threats posed by these nations.

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race

There is a notable divide in U.S. policy circles regarding the response to Putin's proposal. While some advocate for an extension of New START limits, others believe that trusting Putin is unwise, especially given his suspension of mutual inspections under the treaty in 2023. This lack of consensus complicates the U.S. position as the expiration date approaches.

End of an era as US, Russia prepare to exit final nuclear arms treaty

As the expiration of New START looms, the future of nuclear arms control between the U.S. and Russia remains uncertain. The potential for an unregulated arms race poses significant risks, not only for these two nations but for global security as a whole. The coming days will be critical in determining whether a last-minute agreement can be reached to avert this scenario.

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race

• “if it expires, it expires” — President Donald Trump

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race

• “We now have to be able to deter Russia and China simultaneously,” — Franklin Miller, Congressional Commission Member

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race

• “Ultimately, Trump will have started a new arms race that we do not need, nor can we win.” — Senator Ed Markey

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race

• “Russia is prepared for any development. New threats to our security will be promptly and firmly countered,” — Dmitry Medvedev, Former Russian President

Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race