U.S. Tariffs on Oil Suppliers to Cuba: A Diplomatic Tightrope for Mexico

On January 30, 2026, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba, declaring a national emergency due to what he termed the "unusual and extraordinary threat" posed by the Cuban government. This move is part of a broader strategy to destabilize the Cuban regime, which has historically relied on Venezuelan oil, now cut off following the U.S. military operation that ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. With Cuba facing severe fuel shortages and economic distress, the U.S. aims to leverage this situation to force negotiations with Havana.

Trump reveals plan to talk to Cuba amid oil supplies cutRamping up pressure, Trump signs executive order to impose tariffs on Cuba’s oil suppliersTrump threatens tariffs on countries selling oil to CubaTrump Threatens Tariffs on Nations Selling Oil to CubaTrump says US ‘starting to talk to Cuba’ as Washington moves to cut Havana's oil suppliesPresident Diaz-Canel slams Trump’s bid to ‘suffocate’ Cuba’s economy

As the primary supplier of oil to Cuba, Mexico finds itself in a precarious position. President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed concerns that Trump's tariffs could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Cuba, affecting essential services such as hospitals and food supplies. Sheinbaum has stated that any decision regarding oil shipments is a "sovereign" one, yet the pressure from Washington complicates her administration's stance. The Mexican state oil company, Pemex, previously supplied approximately 20,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, accounting for 44% of its foreign oil supply.

Mexico seeks to avoid US tariffs on states shipping oil to CubaMexico to ask Trump to ship oil to Cuba; warns of humanitarian crisis on island due to US tariffsTrump threatens tariffs on goods from countries that sell oil to CubaTrump is pressuring Cuba. It’s putting Mexico in a tough spot.President Diaz-Canel slams Trump’s bid to ‘suffocate’ Cuba’s economyTrump threatens tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba, backing Mexico into a corner

Sheinbaum's government has been cautious in its response to Trump's threats. While she has indicated a desire to maintain humanitarian assistance to Cuba, she has also acknowledged the need to avoid tariffs on Mexico. This balancing act has drawn criticism from factions within her left-wing party, Morena, which has historically aligned with Cuba. Former Mexican officials have noted that Trump's aggressive posture has sparked internal debates about how much risk Mexico can afford to absorb without provoking U.S. retaliation.

Trump is pressuring Cuba. It’s putting Mexico in a tough spot.

Cuban officials have condemned the U.S. actions as "brutal acts of aggression," with Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez accusing the U.S. of attempting to coerce other nations into joining its blockade against Cuba. President Miguel Díaz-Canel has characterized Trump's measures as fascist and genocidal, asserting that they threaten the livelihoods of ordinary Cubans already suffering from economic hardships.

Trump orders tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, declares national emergency

While Trump has not explicitly demanded that Mexico halt oil shipments to Cuba, the ambiguity surrounding the executive order has left many questions unanswered. Sheinbaum has stated that her government is seeking clarification from the U.S. State Department regarding the implications of the tariffs. The lack of clear communication from both sides has led to speculation about the potential for a military blockade or other aggressive measures against Cuba.

Trump threatens tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba, backing Mexico into a corner

As the situation unfolds, the potential for a humanitarian crisis in Cuba looms large. Experts warn that without continued oil shipments, the island could face catastrophic consequences, including widespread blackouts and shortages of essential goods. The U.S. administration's strategy appears to hinge on forcing Cuba to the negotiating table, but the lack of a clear plan for managing the fallout from these sanctions raises concerns about the broader implications for regional stability.

“Homeland or Death”: Cuba Slams Trump’s Tariffs Targeting Oil Suppliers

• “The application of tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba could trigger a far-reaching humanitarian crisis, directly affecting hospitals, food supplies, and other basic services for the Cuban people.” — Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico

Mexico to ask Trump to ship oil to Cuba; warns of humanitarian crisis on island due to US tariffs

• “We denounce to the world this brutal act of aggression against Cuba and its people.” — Bruno Rodríguez, Cuban Foreign Minister

Venezuela approves new law opening its oil industry as Trump threatens more tariffs on countries selling oil to Cuba

• “Cuba will be failing pretty soon” — Donald Trump, President of the United States

Trump threatens tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with much-needed oil

• “This new measure reveals the fascist, criminal and genocidal nature of a clique that has hijacked the interests of the American people for purely personal ends,” — Miguel Díaz-Canel, President of Cuba

President Diaz-Canel slams Trump’s bid to ‘suffocate’ Cuba’s economy

In summary, the U.S. tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba have placed Mexico in a challenging diplomatic position, balancing its economic interests with humanitarian concerns, while the Cuban government faces an increasingly dire situation.

Mexico to ask Trump to ship oil to Cuba; warns of humanitarian crisis on island due to US tariffs