India Faces Increased Risks for Winter Crops Amid Warmer February

India is expected to experience a warmer and drier February, following an unusually warm January, which poses significant risks to key winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas. According to Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, the northwestern wheat-growing region is projected to receive less than 78% of its long-term average rainfall this month. This shift in weather patterns is critical, as winter-sown crops, planted from October to December, require cold conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

Hotter, drier February looms over India, putting winter crops at riskIndia faces hotter, drier February, threatening winter crops

Farmers in India have planted wheat on a record 33.42 million hectares and rapeseed on 8.94 million hectares as of January 23, according to data from the Farm Ministry. However, the combination of above-average temperatures and a 31.5% reduction in rainfall during January raises concerns about potential yield losses. Dr. Mohapatra noted that higher-than-normal temperatures could accelerate crop growth, shortening the growing period and adversely affecting yields.

Hotter, drier February looms over India, putting winter crops at riskIndia faces hotter, drier February, threatening winter crops

February is a crucial month for grain development, and any significant rise in temperatures could negate the benefits of increased planting. A Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house emphasized that "a sharp rise in temperatures during this period would lead to lower yields and could wipe out the gains from higher planting." The implications of reduced yields are particularly concerning for rapeseed, as any decline in production could compel India, the world's largest vegetable-oil importer, to increase its cooking-oil imports.

Hotter, drier February looms over India, putting winter crops at risk

India primarily imports palm oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while soya bean oil and sunflower oil are sourced from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. A decrease in domestic rapeseed production could strain India's import needs, impacting the economy and food prices.

India faces hotter, drier February, threatening winter crops

Critics have raised alarms about the potential long-term effects of climate change on agriculture in India. The reliance on favorable weather conditions for crop yields highlights the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate variability. Farmers and agricultural experts are advocating for more robust strategies to mitigate these risks, including improved irrigation practices and crop diversification.

Hotter, drier February looms over India, putting winter crops at risk

Dr. Mohapatra stated, "Below-normal cold-wave days are likely over several parts of northwest and adjoining central India," indicating a concerning trend for winter crops. The Indian government has yet to announce specific measures to address the anticipated challenges posed by the changing weather patterns.

Hotter, drier February looms over India, putting winter crops at risk

• “February is a crucial month for grain development. A sharp rise in temperatures during this period would lead to lower yields and could wipe out the gains from higher planting,” — Mumbai-based dealer, Global Trade House

India faces hotter, drier February, threatening winter crops

• “Below-normal cold-wave days are likely over several parts of north-west and adjoining central India,” — Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, India Meteorological Department

India faces hotter, drier February, threatening winter crops

As India navigates these climatic challenges, the agricultural sector's resilience will be tested, with significant implications for food security and economic stability.

Hotter, drier February looms over India, putting winter crops at risk