Impending Expiration of New START Treaty Raises Concerns Over Nuclear Arms Race

The New START treaty, the last remaining agreement regulating nuclear arsenals between the United States and Russia, is set to expire on February 4, 2023. This treaty, signed by then-US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev in April 2010, established limits on long-range nuclear weapons and included mechanisms for verification and compliance. Under its terms, the US and Russia agreed to reduce their operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 and maintain a maximum of 700 deployed delivery systems. The treaty also mandated regular data exchanges and on-site inspections, fostering transparency and stability between the two nuclear powers.

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

The New START treaty was initially ratified amid significant political compromise, including a commitment to modernize the US nuclear arsenal at an estimated cost exceeding $2 trillion. While Russia offered to extend the treaty in 2021, then-President Donald Trump declined, leading to a lapse in negotiations. However, President Joe Biden agreed to extend the treaty just before its expiration in February 2021. Despite this extension, Russia suspended key aspects of the treaty in February 2023, including stockpile data exchanges and inspections, while still committing to adhere to the numerical limits on warheads and missiles.

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

With the treaty's expiration imminent, both nations face the prospect of significantly increasing their nuclear arsenals. Reports indicate that the US could potentially increase its deployed warheads by 110%, while Russia could increase its by 60%. This escalation is feasible due to both countries' capabilities to load more warheads onto their existing missile systems. The absence of the treaty's verification and compliance mechanisms is expected to heighten uncertainty and distrust, potentially leading to an arms race.

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

Critics argue that the end of the New START treaty signifies a regression in nuclear disarmament efforts. The lack of ongoing negotiations for new arms control agreements raises alarms about the future of global nuclear stability. Some experts emphasize that both nations should agree to adhere to the treaty's limits until a new agreement is reached, highlighting the need for a verifiable framework for disarmament among all nuclear-armed states.

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

In light of the treaty's expiration, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed a willingness to observe the treaty's limits for an additional year, contingent on similar actions from the US. However, the US has not formally responded to this offer. Former President Trump has suggested that future negotiations should include China, despite China's refusal to participate in trilateral discussions.

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

• “if it expires, it expires” — Donald Trump, Former US President

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

• “The end of the treaty’s verification, data exchanges, and compliance and notification processes would also lead to increased uncertainty and distrust.” — Expert Commentary

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

• “And, 56 years after making a binding commitment in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to achieve nuclear disarmament, both nations should work to implement a verifiable agreement among all nuclear-armed states to eliminate their arsenals.” — Expert Commentary

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?

The expiration of the New START treaty marks a critical juncture in US-Russia relations and global nuclear arms control. With no new negotiations on the horizon, the potential for an accelerated arms race looms large, raising concerns about the future of nuclear disarmament and international security.

The only remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty expires this week. Could a new arms race soon accelerate?