Cboe Global Markets Explores Relaunch of All-or-Nothing Options to Compete with Prediction Markets

Cboe Global Markets is in the early stages of exploring the relaunch of all-or-nothing options contracts, aiming to tap into the burgeoning prediction market sector. This initiative comes as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen significant growth, with trading volumes exceeding $17 billion in January 2026. The proposed contracts would offer a binary-style payoff, delivering a fixed return if a specified condition is met, and nothing if it is not. This structure mirrors the mechanics of existing prediction markets, which allow users to wager on various outcomes, from economic indicators to political events.

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Cboe's new product will operate under strict regulatory oversight from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This regulatory framework aims to provide a compliant alternative to unregulated binary options platforms, which have faced scrutiny due to concerns over fraud and investor protection. Cboe's Chief Executive Officer Craig Donohue emphasized the importance of compliance, stating, “Our focus right now is on our own organic efforts, which I hope will come to fruition in the next several months.”

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Cboe previously attempted to introduce binary options in 2008, but the product was discontinued due to low demand and regulatory challenges. The current financial landscape, however, has shifted dramatically, with a notable increase in retail participation in derivatives markets. Analysts, including Nic Puckrin from Coin Bureau, suggest that the simplicity of binary options could appeal to less experienced investors, making them an attractive option in today's market.

Cboe Revives Binary Options as It Targets Fast-Growing Prediction Markets

Despite the potential benefits, some industry observers express caution regarding the relaunch of binary options. Critics argue that while the all-or-nothing structure simplifies trading, it may also lead to significant risks for investors, particularly if contracts are mispriced. The emphasis on regulatory compliance is seen as a necessary step, but concerns remain about the potential for market manipulation and the overall integrity of such products.

Wall Street’s Boldest Bet Yet? Cboe Quietly Moves to Revive All-or-Nothing Options as Prediction Trading Explodes

Cboe's exploration of all-or-nothing options represents a significant development at the intersection of traditional finance and the rapidly evolving prediction market landscape. The exchange is currently in discussions with brokerages and market makers to finalize the product's structure and compliance measures. The success of this initiative will depend on regulatory approval and market reception, as Cboe aims to position itself as a leader in the emerging field of regulated prediction markets.

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• “This product would be particularly attractive for retail users due to its simplicity,” — Nic Puckrin, Analyst and Co-founder of Coin Bureau

Cboe explores options product with all-or-none payouts, source says

• “It’s also fraught with lots of litigation and lots of regulatory risk as well, so that’s for other people.” — Craig Donohue, CEO of Cboe

Cboe Eyes Regulated Prediction Markets With Options-Style Payoffs

Cboe's renewed focus on binary options could reshape the trading landscape, offering a regulated alternative to existing prediction markets and potentially attracting a new wave of retail investors.

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