The Shift in U.S. Foreign Policy: From Rule-Based Order to Global Mafia Politics

On January 3, 2023, U.S. forces invaded Caracas, resulting in the abduction of Nicolás Maduro, the indicted Venezuelan leader. This military action did not lead to regime change but rather established a coercive agreement allowing Maduro's associates to maintain power in exchange for opening Venezuela's struggling oil industry to American oil companies. President Donald Trump framed this intervention as a means to revitalize Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, which has been in decline for years. However, critics argue that this reflects a broader trend of "global mafia politics," where national sovereignty is undermined in favor of economic exploitation.

Geo-kleptocracy and the rise of 'global mafia politics'

Alex de Waal, Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation, describes the current international landscape as dominated by a "political marketplace," where power is exchanged for financial gain. This concept suggests that the traditional state-based system is breaking down, as countries like Venezuela operate under kleptocratic regimes that prioritize profit over governance. De Waal argues that the U.S. has shifted from promoting democracy to engaging in a form of imperialism that legitimizes kleptocracy, where the same corrupt operators remain in power, merely replacing the figurehead.

Geo-kleptocracy and the rise of 'global mafia politics'

Critics of the U.S. approach, particularly under Trump, contend that it represents a departure from established norms of international law and human rights. De Waal emphasizes that Trump's administration has made the subtext of coercive diplomacy the headline, effectively stating that "there are no rules." This shift raises concerns about the erosion of sovereignty and the prioritization of economic interests over ethical considerations in foreign relations.

The Empire at a Moment of Exposure: The American Condition

The U.S. is perceived to be transitioning from a leader of a rules-based international order to a power that operates on a logic of maximizing gains, often at the expense of global stability. This transformation is characterized by a more aggressive stance in international relations, including military interventions and economic coercion. The U.S. seeks to re-shore strategic industries and manage conflicts through short-term deals rather than long-term commitments, reflecting a significant shift in its global strategy.

The Empire at a Moment of Exposure: The American Condition

While some sources argue that the U.S. invasion of Venezuela is a clear example of imperial overreach, others suggest it is a necessary action to counter a regime that poses a threat to American interests. This divergence highlights the complexities of interpreting U.S. foreign policy actions, particularly in regions rich in strategic resources like oil.

The Empire at a Moment of Exposure: The American Condition

• “we will stand by the rules but will break them.” — Alex de Waal, Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation

Geo-kleptocracy and the rise of 'global mafia politics'

• “I would argue Venezuela looks very much like the new doctrine of “regime change” in the era of kleptocracy, keeping the structure intact and bringing in a new “mafia don” at the top.” — Alex de Waal

Geo-kleptocracy and the rise of 'global mafia politics'

• “The economics of it don’t really add up.” — Alex de Waal

Geo-kleptocracy and the rise of 'global mafia politics'

• “The American military raid on Venezuela and the forceful abduction of its president cannot be understood solely in the context of rivalry with a regime hostile to Washington, but rather as a broader message that national sovereignty has become conditional on alignment with American interests.” — Analysis of U.S. actions in Venezuela

The Empire at a Moment of Exposure: The American Condition

The implications of the U.S. invasion of Venezuela extend beyond immediate geopolitical concerns, signaling a potential shift in how international relations are conducted. As the U.S. increasingly adopts a transactional approach to foreign policy, the traditional principles of sovereignty and international law may continue to erode, raising questions about the future stability of the global order.

The Empire at a Moment of Exposure: The American Condition