Vietnam's Military Prepares for Potential U.S. Aggression

An internal document from Vietnam's Ministry of Defense indicates that the country’s military is preparing for a potential "war of aggression" by the United States, labeling the U.S. as a "belligerent" power. This report, highlighted by The 88 Project, a human rights organization, underscores Vietnam's apprehensions regarding U.S. intentions, particularly in light of historical events like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines. The document, titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan,” was completed in August 2024 and reflects a consensus among various government ministries regarding the perceived threat from the U.S.

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

The document outlines a shift in U.S. policy across three administrations—Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden—characterizing U.S. actions as increasingly aggressive towards Vietnam. Despite the signing of a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in 2023, which elevated diplomatic relations to the highest level, Vietnamese military analysts express skepticism about U.S. motives. They argue that the U.S. aims to impose its values on Vietnam, potentially undermining the socialist government. Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project, notes that this perspective reveals Vietnam's view of the U.S. as an existential threat rather than a strategic partner.

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College, emphasizes that Vietnam's military retains a strong memory of the Vietnam War, which ended in 1975. This historical context contributes to ongoing fears of a "color revolution," which the Communist Party perceives as a significant threat to its authority. The document also highlights Vietnam's balancing act between maintaining relations with China, its largest trade partner, and the U.S., its largest export market. While tensions exist with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea, the Vietnamese government appears more concerned about U.S. intervention than Chinese aggression.

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

Critics, including Abuza, argue that the Vietnamese Communist Party's fears of a color revolution are unfounded, given the country's economic progress and stability. However, the legacy of U.S. foreign policy, particularly cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development during Trump's administration, has exacerbated distrust. These cuts disrupted critical projects, including efforts to address the environmental damage caused by Agent Orange.

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

The U.S. State Department has refrained from commenting directly on the “2nd U.S. Invasion Plan,” instead emphasizing the benefits of the new partnership agreement. Meanwhile, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry did not respond to inquiries about the report. As Vietnam's political landscape evolves, particularly with the reappointment of General Secretary To Lam, the implications of these military preparations and the perception of U.S. intentions will likely continue to shape Vietnam's foreign policy.

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

• “There's a consensus here across the government and across different ministries,” — Ben Swanton, Co-director, The 88 Project

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

• “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan provides one of the most clear-eyed insights yet into Vietnam's foreign policy,” — Ben Swanton, Co-director, The 88 Project

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

• “They have so much to be proud of — they have lifted so many people out of poverty, the economy is humming along, they are the darling of foreign investors.” — Zachary Abuza, Professor, National War College

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

• “If something happens in Cuba, it will send shock waves through Vietnam’s political elites.” — Nguyen Khac Giang, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war

This comprehensive analysis of Vietnam's military preparations against perceived U.S. aggression highlights the complexities of international relations in the Indo-Pacific region, reflecting deep-rooted historical anxieties and contemporary geopolitical dynamics.

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war