Impending Expiration of New START Treaty Signals a New Era in Nuclear Arms Control

The New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. Signed in 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the treaty limited each country to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 800 delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers. It also established verification mechanisms, including inspections and data exchanges, which have been crucial for maintaining transparency and trust between the two nuclear powers.

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As the expiration date approaches, both nations face the prospect of entering a new era without any formal limits on their nuclear arsenals for the first time in over half a century. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has stated that Russia is prepared for this "new reality," indicating a readiness to modernize its nuclear triad without the constraints of the treaty. He emphasized that Russia would not be provoked into an arms race but acknowledged the potential for increased military measures if the U.S. deploys missile defense systems in Greenland.

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The absence of the New START treaty could lead to a significant escalation in nuclear arsenals. Analysts warn that both the U.S. and Russia could increase their deployed warheads substantially, with estimates suggesting that the U.S. could boost its arsenal by up to 110% and Russia by 60%. This situation is compounded by the ongoing military developments in both countries, including Russia's modernization of its nuclear capabilities and the expansion of China's nuclear arsenal.

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Former President Barack Obama has voiced concerns about the treaty's expiration, stating that it would "pointlessly wipe out decades of diplomacy" and could ignite a new arms race. He urged Congress to intervene before the treaty lapses. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has indicated a desire for a new agreement that includes China, dismissing the current treaty's importance by saying, "If it expires, it expires. We’ll just do a better agreement." This stance has drawn criticism from former officials who argue that abandoning the treaty could lead to greater instability.

Barack Obama Sends Warning About Nuclear Arms Race With Russia

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has echoed the sentiment that the world will become more dangerous without the treaty, warning that the lack of a controlling document for nuclear arsenals could lead to increased tensions and miscalculations.

Moscow Warns of ‘Dangerous’ Moment Ahead of New START Expiration

Critics of the Trump administration's approach to nuclear arms control argue that the focus on including China in negotiations is misguided, given the significant disparity in nuclear stockpiles. Experts like Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, have expressed concern that without the New START treaty, the likelihood of an arms race increases, particularly as both nations ramp up their military capabilities.

Barack Obama Sends Warning About Nuclear Arms Race With Russia

While Russia has proposed extending the treaty's limits for another year, the U.S. has not formally responded to this offer. This lack of communication raises questions about the future of arms control negotiations and the potential for a three-way arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and China. The absence of a clear path forward leaves both nations in a precarious position, with no established framework for managing their nuclear arsenals.

Russia is ready for new world with no nuclear limits, senior diplomat says

The expiration of the New START treaty marks a critical juncture in global nuclear arms control, potentially leading to an unrestrained arms race reminiscent of the Cold War era. As both nations prepare for a future without formal limits, the international community watches closely, aware that the decisions made in the coming days could have profound implications for global security and stability.

Why the collapse of the last US-Russia nuclear treaty matters for China and the world