The Impending Expiration of New START and Its Consequences

The New START treaty, a pivotal nuclear-arms-control agreement between the United States and the Russian Federation, is set to expire soon. Established in 2011, New START imposes limits on the number of strategic nuclear weapons each country can possess, capping the arsenals at 1,550 warheads each. This treaty is the last significant remnant of a series of agreements aimed at stabilizing U.S.-Russia relations and reducing nuclear arsenals since the Cold War. The expiration of New START raises concerns about a potential new arms race, as both nations may feel unrestrained to expand their nuclear capabilities.

Countdown to an Arms Race

The origins of New START trace back to earlier agreements such as the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) initiated in the 1970s. SALT aimed to limit missile defenses and was succeeded by the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in the late 1980s, which significantly reduced the number of nuclear warheads. The subsequent Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), signed in 2002, lacked verification measures and set only approximate reduction goals. New START was introduced by President Barack Obama as a more robust framework, incorporating stronger verification protocols and clearer compliance measures.

Countdown to an Arms Race

President Donald Trump has expressed a desire for a "better" treaty that includes China, despite Beijing's rejection of such negotiations. Critics argue that this demand serves as a "poison pill" that could hinder any progress on renewing New START. Trump's administration has shown a lack of commitment to arms control, with indications that it may prioritize increasing the U.S. nuclear arsenal rather than maintaining existing agreements. This approach raises alarms among experts who warn that failing to replace New START could lead to heightened geopolitical instability and an increased risk of nuclear conflict.

Countdown to an Arms Race

The expiration of New START could have dire consequences for global security. Experts emphasize that effective nuclear control extends beyond mere numerical limits; it relies on trust-building measures such as regular inspections and information exchanges. Without these mechanisms, the likelihood of misunderstandings and escalated tensions increases. Emma Belcher, president of the arms-control organization Ploughshares, cautions that the failure to renew New START would contribute to greater instability and a higher risk of nuclear catastrophe.

Countdown to an Arms Race

Critics of the Trump administration's stance on nuclear arms control argue that expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal is unnecessary and counterproductive. The United States already possesses sufficient nuclear capabilities to deter threats from both Russia and China. The focus should instead be on maintaining existing treaties and fostering international stability through diplomatic engagement.

Countdown to an Arms Race

• “contribute to greater geopolitical instability, escalated tensions across the world and a higher likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe in our lifetime.” — Emma Belcher, President of Ploughshares

Countdown to an Arms Race

• “If it expires, it expires.” — Donald Trump, President of the United States

Countdown to an Arms Race

• “I think, to me, nuclear is just the power. The devastation is very important to me.” — Donald Trump, during a 2015 primary debate

Countdown to an Arms Race

The future of nuclear arms control hangs in the balance as the expiration of New START approaches, highlighting the critical need for renewed dialogue and commitment to international security.

Countdown to an Arms Race