Full Breakdown
One Nation's Rising Influence in South Australian Politics
2/4/2026, 11:45:02 AM
Context of the Upcoming Election
The South Australian state election, scheduled for March 21, 2026, presents a significant opportunity for One Nation, a right-wing political party led by Pauline Hanson. The party is attempting to capitalize on a surge in popularity, particularly following the recruitment of former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi as its lead candidate for the Legislative Council. This election is seen as a critical test for One Nation, which aims to convert its increasing poll numbers into actual parliamentary seats amidst a backdrop of turmoil within the Liberal Party.
One Nation's Strategy and Polling Insights
Recent polling indicates that One Nation's primary vote has risen to approximately 13%, a notable increase from the 4.2% it received in the 2022 election. This growth is attributed to Bernardi's high profile and the party's strategic positioning against a backdrop of declining support for the Liberal Party, which is projected to retain only a handful of seats. Political analysts suggest that One Nation could potentially double its support in South Australia, with some polls indicating it may outpoll the Liberals in key regional areas.
Key Figures and Their Roles
Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, has historically garnered a devoted following, though her leadership has faced criticism for being dictatorial. Cory Bernardi, who previously served as a senator and has a reputation for conservative values, is now positioned to lead One Nation's campaign. His presence is expected to enhance the party's credibility and appeal to disaffected conservative voters.
Official Statements and Responses
Hanson expressed optimism about the party's prospects, stating, “Whether we have one seat, we have five seats or 22 seats, we will be the strongest voice of opposition that this government has ever faced.” Bernardi echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the party's commitment to contesting all lower house electorates and aiming for a significant presence in the upper house.
Criticism and Opposition
Despite the enthusiasm from One Nation's supporters, there are concerns about the party's ability to translate polling success into votes. Critics point to a potential disconnect between voter sentiment and actual electoral behavior, suggesting that while there may be a protest vote for One Nation, it may not manifest in substantial electoral gains. Additionally, Liberal Shadow Treasurer Ben Hood criticized One Nation for lacking concrete economic policies, questioning their viability as a serious alternative.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
While some polls indicate a strong showing for One Nation, others suggest that the party's support may not be as robust as it appears. For instance, a Fox and Hedgehog poll placed the Liberals at 21% and Labor at 41%, indicating a challenging environment for One Nation to secure seats. The actual impact of Bernardi's candidacy and the party's overall strategy remains to be seen as the election approaches.
What's Next for One Nation
As the election date nears, One Nation is expected to intensify its campaign efforts, focusing on mobilizing support in both urban and regional areas. The party's ability to maintain momentum and convert its polling advantage into electoral success will be closely monitored, particularly in light of the ongoing challenges facing the Liberal Party and the broader political landscape in South Australia.
