Dynamics of Power in Post-War Gaza: Hamas and the Palestinian Authority

Following the October 7, 2023, massacre orchestrated by Hamas, Israel initiated military operations with the primary objectives of recovering hostages and dismantling Hamas's military capabilities. However, the ongoing conflict has led to a complex power dynamic in Gaza, where both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) are vying for influence amidst a backdrop of international diplomatic efforts.

Hamas strengthens and the PA returns — this is no recipe for security and stabilityCeasefire in name only as Hamas disarmament stallsHow Does Hamas Plan to Maintain Control of the Gaza Strip?IDF said to give Netanyahu document outlining how Hamas is rebuilding in GazaIsrael Demands Hamas Disarmament, but No International Force Is in Gaza to Enforce It

The PA, led by Mahmoud Abbas, has been reasserting its presence in Gaza, a territory it lost to Hamas nearly two decades ago. Under the auspices of U.S. President Donald Trump, the Rafah Crossing between Gaza and Egypt has reopened, allowing limited movement of people. The PA is now involved in managing this process, despite Israel's reluctance to acknowledge its role. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), primarily composed of PA members, is set to take charge of civil governance in Gaza, signaling a potential shift in the region's administrative landscape.

Hamas strengthens and the PA returns — this is no recipe for security and stabilityHow Does Hamas Plan to Maintain Control of the Gaza Strip?IDF said to give Netanyahu document outlining how Hamas is rebuilding in GazaCeasefire in name only as Hamas disarmament stallsGaza border security upped amid fears of smuggling to HamasIsrael Demands Hamas Disarmament, but No International Force Is in Gaza to Enforce It

Hamas remains a dominant force in Gaza, controlling significant military and administrative structures. The PA's return, however, complicates this dynamic. The NCAG's leadership includes Ali Shaath, a former PA deputy minister, indicating a strong PA influence. Meanwhile, Hamas has integrated its operatives into various government ministries, maintaining its grip on power while appearing to cooperate with the new governance structure.

Hamas strengthens and the PA returns — this is no recipe for security and stability

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized that Hamas must disarm and that the PA should not play a governing role in Gaza. He stated, “We will not compromise on the demilitarization of Hamas.” Conversely, Trump and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, assert that Hamas will disarm, claiming they "have no choice." This optimism contrasts sharply with Hamas's internal communications, which indicate a strategy to retain military capabilities while managing a façade of cooperation.

Hamas strengthens and the PA returns — this is no recipe for security and stabilityIDF said to give Netanyahu document outlining how Hamas is rebuilding in GazaCeasefire in name only as Hamas disarmament stallsHow Does Hamas Plan to Maintain Control of the Gaza Strip?Israel Demands Hamas Disarmament, but No International Force Is in Gaza to Enforce It

Experts express skepticism regarding the feasibility of Hamas's disarmament. Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that without a credible enforcement mechanism, disarmament is unlikely. He stated, “If Hamas retains weapons and organized armed units, it retains power regardless of what administrative structures exist on paper.” This sentiment reflects broader concerns about the PA's ability to govern effectively in a territory still heavily influenced by Hamas.

Ceasefire in name only as Hamas disarmament stalls

Reports indicate that while Hamas has suffered losses, it continues to strengthen its governance structures. Israeli military assessments suggest that Hamas retains significant military capabilities, with estimates of 15,000 to 30,000 rockets still in its arsenal. The PA's role, while reestablished, is fraught with challenges, as Hamas's military presence complicates any efforts to implement effective governance.

Ceasefire in name only as Hamas disarmament stalls

The international community remains divided on how to proceed. While discussions about deploying international forces to enforce disarmament are ongoing, no concrete commitments have been made. The PA's integration into Gaza's governance structure may evolve, but the enduring influence of Hamas poses significant obstacles to achieving lasting peace and stability in the region. The situation remains fluid, with potential for further military engagement if disarmament efforts falter.

Ceasefire in name only as Hamas disarmament stalls