Expiration of New START Treaty Sparks Fears of Renewed Nuclear Arms Race

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, expired on February 4, 2026. This development has raised significant concerns among experts and global leaders about the potential for a renewed nuclear arms race, marking the first time in over fifty years that there are no binding limits on the nuclear arsenals of the two largest nuclear powers.

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Signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, New START capped each country at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and included provisions for verification through on-site inspections and data exchanges. However, Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023, citing U.S. support for Ukraine as a reason for its withdrawal from inspection protocols. Despite this, both nations continued to adhere to the numerical limits until the treaty's expiration.

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• Donald Trump: The U.S. President expressed indifference towards the treaty's expiration, stating, “If it expires, it expires... We’ll just do a better agreement.” He has indicated a desire to include China in future arms control negotiations.

Trump prepares to let go of arms control with Russia

• Vladimir Putin: The Russian President proposed extending the treaty's limits for another year but received no formal response from the U.S. His administration has stated it will act "responsibly" following the treaty's lapse.

Russia vows to act ‘responsibly’ once nuclear pact with US ends

• Pope Leo XIV: The Pope urged both nations to avoid abandoning the treaty, emphasizing the need for a shared ethic to guide nuclear decisions.

Russia criticises US as final nuclear warhead treaty set to expire

The expiration of New START could lead to an unconstrained nuclear arms race, as both the U.S. and Russia are now free to increase their arsenals without legal limitations. Experts warn that this could result in both nations rapidly uploading additional warheads onto their existing missile systems, potentially doubling their deployed nuclear arsenals. The absence of a verification framework increases the risk of miscalculations and escalates global tensions, particularly as China continues to expand its own nuclear capabilities.

Trump prepares to let go of arms control with Russia

In the lead-up to the treaty's expiration, various officials expressed their concerns:

Fears of renewed nuclear arms race as US-Russia treaty nears expiry

• Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, stated, “Without the treaty, each side will be free to upload hundreds of additional warheads onto their deployed missiles and heavy bombers.”

Russia criticises US as final nuclear warhead treaty set to expire

• Barack Obama warned that the treaty's expiration would "pointlessly wipe out decades of diplomacy" and could spark a new arms race that makes the world less safe.

Barack Obama Sends Warning About Nuclear Arms Race With Russia

Critics of the Trump administration's approach argue that abandoning the treaty without a replacement undermines decades of arms control efforts. Former officials have expressed frustration over the lack of engagement with Russia regarding the treaty's future. Kingston Reif, a former Pentagon nuclear official, noted that it was unclear why the U.S. would abandon limits on Russian strategic forces simply because New START did not include China.

Russia criticises US as final nuclear warhead treaty set to expire

While both the U.S. and Russia have expressed intentions to modernize their nuclear arsenals, there are discrepancies regarding the immediate implications of the treaty's expiration. Some experts believe that logistical challenges will slow any rapid buildup, while others warn that the absence of constraints could lead to an accelerated arms race.

Fears of renewed nuclear arms race as US-Russia treaty nears expiry

The future of nuclear arms control remains uncertain. With no formal negotiations underway to replace New START, the potential for a new arms race looms large. Experts suggest that urgent diplomatic efforts are needed to prevent an uncontrolled escalation of nuclear capabilities and to ensure global security.

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• “She said: “Without New START, there is a real danger the new arms race will accelerate between the US and Russia.” — Melissa Parke, Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

Terrifying new arms race threatens to explode with no limits on warheads as US-Russia nuclear weapons treaty expires

• “The tragedy of New START is not that it expires, but that there wasn’t anything put in place to replace it.” — Matt Korda, Associate Director of the Nuclear Information Project.

US-Russia nuclear treaty expires as warnings grow of new arms race

• “We’re looking at a very uncertain path ahead,” — Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association.

Trump prepares to let go of arms control with Russia

• “This is a new moment, a new reality – we are ready for it,” — Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister.

Expiry of nuclear weapons pact between US and Russia risks new arms race

The expiration of New START signifies a pivotal moment in global nuclear policy, with the potential to reshape international security dynamics in the years to come.

Fears of renewed nuclear arms race as US-Russia treaty nears expiry