Decline in Migrant Encounters at the U.S.-Mexico Border

U.S. Border Patrol encounters with migrants crossing into the United States from Mexico have reached their lowest level in over 50 years. In the 2025 fiscal year, which ran from October 2024 to September 2025, there were 237,538 recorded encounters, a stark decline from more than 1.5 million in fiscal 2024 and over 2 million in fiscal 2023. This figure represents the lowest annual total since 1970, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

The trend of decreasing migrant encounters has been influenced by various policy changes in both the U.S. and Mexico, spanning the administrations of Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Monthly statistics indicate an even more pronounced decline during Trump's second term, which began on January 20, 2025. Since that time, the Border Patrol has reported fewer than 10,000 encounters per month, marking the lowest monthly totals in over 25 years.

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

The following data illustrates the significant fluctuations in migrant encounters over the years:

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

• Fiscal Year 2025: 237,538 encounters

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

• Fiscal Year 2024: 1,530,523 encounters

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

• Fiscal Year 2023: 2,045,838 encounters

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

• Fiscal Year 2022: 2,206,436 encounters

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

The data shows a consistent decline from the peak of over 2.2 million encounters in fiscal 2022, reflecting broader trends influenced by economic, political, and security conditions in migrants' home countries, as well as U.S. immigration policies.

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

The significant drop in migrant encounters is indicative of changing dynamics at the U.S.-Mexico border. Factors contributing to this decline include stricter immigration policies and enforcement measures, as well as shifting conditions in Central America and Mexico that affect migration patterns. This situation raises questions about the future of U.S. immigration policy and its impact on border security and humanitarian considerations.

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

The Pew Research Center's analysis emphasizes that the term "encounters" refers primarily to Border Patrol apprehensions of migrants crossing between official points of entry. It is important to note that some migrants may be encountered multiple times, which can affect total counts. The analysis also highlights that the federal fiscal year runs from October to September, meaning that the 2025 figures include nearly four months under the Biden administration, during which encounters were significantly higher than in the months following Trump's return to office.

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

Critics argue that the decline in encounters may not necessarily reflect a decrease in migration but rather the effectiveness of policies that deter migrants from attempting to cross the border. Some advocacy groups express concern that these policies may lead to increased risks for migrants, who may resort to more dangerous routes or methods to enter the U.S.

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

While the overall trend indicates a decline in encounters, there are discrepancies in how these statistics are interpreted. Some analysts suggest that the numbers may understate the actual migration flow, as they do not account for individuals who may have been deterred from attempting to cross due to heightened enforcement measures.

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

• “The 2025 total was the lowest in any fiscal year since 1970, according to historical data from the Border Patrol.” — Pew Research Center

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

• “Recent totals have been even lower than the 16,182 encounters in April 2020, when international migration plummeted in the early months of the coronavirus pandemic.” — Pew Research Center

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years