Full Breakdown
Vietnam's Military Prepares for Potential U.S. Aggression Amid Diplomatic Ties
2/5/2026, 1:23:49 PM
Internal Document Reveals Military Concerns
A recently leaked internal document from Vietnam's Ministry of Defense, titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan,” indicates that the Vietnamese military is preparing for a potential conflict with the United States, viewing it as a "belligerent power." This assessment comes just a year after Vietnam upgraded its diplomatic relations with the U.S. to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, marking the highest level of ties since normalization in 1995. The document, completed in August 2024, reflects a deep-seated apprehension within Hanoi regarding U.S. intentions, particularly fears of a "color revolution" similar to those seen in Ukraine and the Philippines.
Perceptions of U.S. Intentions
The document suggests that Vietnam perceives the U.S. not as a strategic partner but as an existential threat, concerned that Washington aims to destabilize the Communist regime by promoting democracy and human rights. Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project, which released the report, stated, “This isn’t just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government.” The Vietnamese military's analysis traces a pattern of increasing U.S. military engagement in Asia across three presidential administrations—Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden—suggesting a consistent strategy to counter China's influence.
Official Responses and Criticism
The U.S. State Department did not directly address the leaked document but emphasized the benefits of the new partnership, stating it promotes prosperity and security for both nations. However, experts like Nguyen Khac Giang from the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute highlight internal tensions within Vietnam's political landscape, particularly between reform-minded officials and conservative factions wary of U.S. motives. Giang noted that the military has historically been uncomfortable with closer ties to the U.S., fearing potential repercussions.
Broader Implications and Regional Dynamics
The document underscores Vietnam's balancing act between maintaining relations with both the U.S. and China, its largest trading partner. While Vietnam has engaged with the U.S. to strengthen its position against China, the military's fears of U.S. aggression complicate this relationship. Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College, remarked that the Vietnamese leadership's biggest fear is not China but the possibility of a U.S.-backed uprising.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
There is a notable discrepancy in how the U.S. and Vietnam perceive their relationship. While the U.S. views Vietnam as a partner in promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific, Vietnam's military sees Washington's actions as potentially destabilizing. Additionally, the document reflects a broader concern that U.S. military actions elsewhere, such as in Venezuela, could have implications for Vietnam's strategic balance, particularly regarding its ally, Cuba.
Verbatim Quotes
- “due to the U.S.'s belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the U.S. and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.” — Vietnamese Military Document
- “as a strategic partner, Hanoi sees Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its anti-China alliance.” — Ben Swanton, Co-director of The 88 Project
This situation illustrates the complexities of Vietnam's foreign policy as it navigates its relationships with major powers while safeguarding its sovereignty and political stability.
